Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn Devitt

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast I am delighted to be joined by Anastasia Amoroso, Managing Director and Chief Investment Strategist at Partners Group. Our conversation starts with a traditional vibe check on the narratives and counter-narratives driving market sentiment. She speaks about a multi - engine economy growing thanks to a stable consumer, soaring Capex, spending on areas such as defence. We move then to discuss Scott Bessent's Big Bet, which is clearly that his intervention in the bond market wills stem the rise at the long end of the yield curve. Anastasia notes the difference in focus of each of the Fed and the Treasury Secretary with a focus on different ends of the curve, and notes the reason for long term yields being as high as they are - higher growth expectations, the stickier inflation, but also the sell-off by other US Treasury bond holders. Discussing geopolitics she notes the amount of oil still flowing through the Strait of Hormuz and the fact that only a fraction of the trade between the US and Canada are actually affected by tariffs, and we mull over the workarounds that are likely to follow once the new realities of global trade filter through.Finally we focus on the innovation economy and the role of private equity in it - noting the uptick in flows into private equity so far this year and the role that private equity investors are likely to play in driving innovation within their portfolio companies. In conclusion we note the passing of music legend and philanthropist Dolly Parton and how she defied expectations, leaving you with her immortal words "Find out who you are, and do it on purpose" .

This week we have a bonus episode of the Markets Happy Hour podcast in which we feature Charles-Henry Monchau, CIO of Syz Bank, recorded on site in Geneva. I have followed Charles-Henry and his original – and sometimes provocative – takes on LinkedIN for some time and it was great to gather his views as summer comes to an end. Our conversation features a Europe-based lens on market events and dynamics and we begin with a discussion of the Swiss budget surplus – an increasingly anomalous feature among developed nations. We turn then to the European economic vibes and the prevailing conclusion is that earnings, growth numbers and other economic indicators are generally better than expected revealing a surprising resilience. We ask whether the sluggishness that led to many European nations not being at the frontlines of the current AI buildout may not be such a disadvantage after all. Certain nations such as France have abundant nuclear power, data centre construction is underway and policy moves to protect AI sovereignty might place local operators in a strong position. Charles-Henry points out that European companies would be well placed to see productivity gains from AI, given their relatively small size. He notes the earnings bull market in Europe which could be enough to push markets higher. We discuss how Europe benefits from global trade and also how its dependence on US services is very different from 2008.The weakness in Europe is not just from AI but also from the European industrial base, and he notes that Europe will have to invest in itself and really focused on innovation. When discussing the USD and its recent weakness Charles-Henry argues that the US is being forced into the choice of supporting the bond market OR the currency, and like Japan has prioritised supporting the bond market, given the debt load as well as the dependence on rates within the economy.

In this week’s Markets Happy Hour Podcast we are joined by Anwiti Bahuguna Co-CIO of Northern Trust Asset Management, who has had a long history of multi-asset investment for a range of institutional and wealth management clients. The title of the podcast refers to the "Ferragosto" phase of Eurosummer, which has been tumultuous and newsfilled, and quite ferocious bot in terms of its heat and its pace. Discussing inflation, Anwiti argues that the current AI buildout is predominantly inflationary, and we discuss how this translates into an underweight to bonds in the multi-asset programmes that she runs at Northern Trust Asset Management. The economy is fundamentally strong, which is shoring up equity markets and driving them to new highs, she stresses that the cyclical forces have been weaker while structural forces remaining quite robust. This disconnect is evident in the bond market when we compare developed markets, which in the past week have seen rates gap out to a 19 year high in the case of the US 30 year. We reflect on the two consecutive Fed interventions (the first one around the Yen and the second one around bond buying in the long end of the US) in the bond market as revealing as to the importance that is placed on shoring up the fixed income market (a theme echoed during our Europe-featured bonus podcast also launched today). We also ask if the initial negative reaction to the Fed communication schedule is premature - given the very early stage of the tenure of the new Chair. Anwiti suggests that any change would be received with some trepidation, and that this does not necessarily point to a Fed that is "losing the room". Turning to equity markets we strip out the tech effect and see that under Trump 2.0 equity markets have been broadly strong. This should not suggest, however, that other sectors are not exposed to AI, it does continue to underpin all sector momentum. Looking on a global level - we discuss the earnings strength on a global front, and point to the earnings growth in Emerging Markets, Europe and Japan, and look to the relatively strong performance of emerging markets as a whole. There are of course exceptions here - losers as well as winners - in particular in India, which has been hugely boosted by outsourcing recently. This has recently seen some attrition led by AI.To conclude we discuss the cracks in the current positive momentum, suggesting that both the higher yields present in hyperscaler credit as well as the hesitation regarding private credit segment all point to a healthy scepticism regarding boundless capex spend, as well as the potential for some loans to go bad. The suggests that the biggest "scorecard" for private credit is what is happening in the investment grade market and the reckoning there.

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast I am joined by Simon Evan-Cook, a Multi-Asset Fund Manager at Downing Fund Managers who writes the Fund of Funds Insider column for Citywire. He was previously a AAA-rated fund manager, winning multiple investment awards, including four prestigious ‘Fund Manager of the Year’ titles.Today we reflect on a week that has revealed much about a few split screens that we are seeing in markets. On the inflation side there is the split between inflation expectations, which have been low, the headline numbers which are still subdued and the rising commodity prices including oil. There is a split screen around market volatility too - relatively low overall market volatility, that has seemed to be muted on the overall market side, while it has been accentuated within individual sectors - e.g. semiconductors have been 5x as volatile as the general market. Besides reflecting on economic vibes, particularly as they relate to the UK and the dependence on real estate and housing prices, we also discuss the importance of the recent Yen intervention and what it reveals about the global market system, as well as the outlook for Japan. Moving to broader portfolio construction, Simon admits his preference for equities and how he approaches portfolio construction. He is watching from the sidelines on private credit, and we discuss how some of the muddy waters surrounding that sector have been showing in the trading price of these companies. Their defaults may be subdued but their watchlists tell another story.

In this week's abbreviated Markets Happy Hour podcast we discuss the Trip to Nowhere that the on-again-off-again hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz have created. Coming to you live from the mountains we reflect on inflation movements and the divergence with inflation expectations, as well as the bond market's persistent skepticism regarding Fed policy and the fiscal security of various developed markets. Equity markets have been positive for Europe year to date and earnings and revenues have been strong across the US, Europe and Asia, while venture capital returns have come under the microscope with the sale of Air Table to Bending Spoons.

In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we discuss the split US Fed as they look to the next direction of interest rates. We also touch on the devastation caused by the wildfires across Europe so far this summer - and ask about their impact on policy, productivity and morale. Moving back to market forces, we remain pretty much where we were already with the state of geopolitics and the Strait of Hormuz - we have had a halt to hostilities then an outbreak again. The oil price remains the most hard hit asset and has swung around fairly notably in the past week. All of this adds "fuel" to the inflation worry, which bond markets seemed to take seriously this week. The split Fed and the lack of direction - deliberately - under the new chairman left a rather sour taste, with bond market selling off. This deliberate lack of telegraphing and the Fed itself almost "Taking the Fifth" went down like a proverbial lead balloon and it is interesting to ask if there will be an erosion of trust and therefore a sundering of the link between the Fed and the bond market that it may seek to influence.Other economic vibes percolated, particularly around Europe where on the one hand old industries like German carmakers, continued to struggle, while there was some surprising pockets of growth - such as among German start-ups, while defence stocks continued to perform well. Sovereignty is increasingly a buzzword when it comes to AI - whether at a corporate level - where there is increasing reticence around giving up the proprietary layer IP to a frontier model, such as by feeding it to Claude. This was first raised by Alex Karp of Palantir, reinforced by Satya Nadella of Microsoft and now increasingly in evidence as the frontier model labs roll out everything from design studios to their own drug development channels. Sovereignty is in issue too within Europe where countries have started to reject the use of Palantir and to "urgently" seek national champions due to security concerns with the uniformity of this software. The rise of French company Mistral as an Open AI competitor, while the other French AI company ChapsVision is emerging as the European competitor to Palantir and the French authorities announced in June that they would replace Palantir after a period of transition. Equity markets were unsettled, with some chartists suggesting that the fall in the Magnificent 7 was a sign that they were losing their place in the sun, replicating how the FAANGs had fallen out of favour after 2018-2019. This rotation out of tech had favoured European indices with some commentators suggesting that they are now the anti-tech index. - is this a good or a bad thing thought? For investors seeking to diversify their portfolios it is surely a good thing - not every company will be a tech company will they? In other news prediction markets are now not optimistic on an OpenAI IPO even in 2027. Times are changing.

In today’s Markets Happy Hour podcast we focus in particular on some of the other economies outside the US, with a look at how markets are reacting to the 7th Prime Minister in 10 years and ask who is the new “sick man” of Europe. Starting with what might be deemed to be inflation’s deep fake moment – the false dawn of June’s low number, we ask what is to come if oil price induced inflation breaks out in the second half of the year. The oil price is in now in overdrive, having surpassed $100 per barrel today, a sharp reaction to not only the reignition of the kinetic clashes in the Strait of Hormuz, but the report of low inventories on a global scale and a clear surging demand for energy has led to expectations of higher prices by the end of December. For the moment central banks have been minded to pause on interest rate hikes – a policy across the UK, the US and the ECB for now. Within equity markets the divergence of some sectors continues – although semi-conductors have recently given back some of their gains with a sharp reversal in momentum. Financials have been surging as trading volume and corporate transactions rise, while single stock volatility continues to be an issue after the IBM earnings report. We discuss other drivers of volatility such as the increasing level of retail participation in markets which seems to lead to exacerbated momentum. This is also a development in Asia – the exception is Europe, which has low retail participation and where the equity markets represent an ever smaller percentage of global volumes. While this is a sorry indictment of the state of the equity markets in Europe, it does mean that momentum stocks have been more volatile.

This week's podcast comes from a somewhat downbeat London after the exit of the England team from the World Cup semi-final last night. It was a tough loss - particularly poignant as the atmosphere had been so electric in London last night.Starting with inflation, the surprisingly low number in June reflects the fall in the oil prices, which continues to be very leveraged to geopolitical news. This is despite expectations actually being higher - per the headline from last week. The oil price is continuing to reflect the low inventories in oil, which are noted to be historically low. The expectation around interest rates is shifting as inflation shifts downwards, although based on the oil price sensitivity this could be premature. There is a fascinating rotation taking place in equity markets - whereby small-cap companies are seeing a strong underpinning of demand - even the negative earning companies. This suggests that there is an ability to see through the hype and to identify potential in smaller companies - at their early growth stage. Other notable trends include the financial sector which has performed exceptionally well as the volume of trading has increased and M&A activity. The economic outlook is bright with a smaller expectation of US recession probability - indicating a buoyant economic outlook sparked by lower inflation and strong earnings. The sharp drop in IBM stock was a telling development - as it was clear from their statement that they were experiencing consumers making choices away from their products in favour of AI expenditure. This could be a harbinger of other choices are likely to make, indicating that pockets are not unlimited and deep. The explosion of complex derivatives, including levered ETFs on single stocks is jolting volatility in markets such as Korea, and as the chart below shows the assets in such instruments have really grown.

In this second podcast of the week we are joined by Adam Berger, Multi-Asset Strategist at Wellington. Our conversation reflects on the fact that many of the current news items seem very like "deja-vu" - the tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, the spike in the oil price, the return of the heat wave. We cycle through our usual five topics and reveal some surprising points of view on inflation, as well as the risks in equity markets. The views expressed are those of the speaker(s) and are subject to change. Other teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. For professional/institutional investors only. Your capital may be at risk.

**NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE AND DOES NOT CONTAIN INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATIONS"This week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast is a little bit different . . while we still bring you a market overview together with an outstanding guest, this time we are exploring how good some of the AI models are at picking stocks, building portfolios and deciphering equity market narratives. Guest Content Disclosure: This presentation was prepared by Jens Backes, an independent guest speaker, and reflects Jens Backes' opinions as of the presentation date. Moneta has not independently verified the information presented. For educational discussion purposes only. Not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.Jens Backes is a former McKinsey consultant with an expertise in telecoms, based in Barcelona, where we recorded this episode. Since October of last year he has challenged 3 models plus his own Alphabot JB to pick 10 stocks to generate the best total return over 5 years. The results are intriguing.From Open AI's portfolio which has gone all in on every aspect of the AI value chain, to Claude which prefers to own tolls and not the road (whatever that means) each model has gone in its own unique direction and not all have beaten the index. We discuss what we can learn from these models in terms of persistence of market narratives and the unexpected winners that can come from such a highly concentrated portfolio.All examples are provided for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to represent all investment decisions or results achieved for client accounts. Client results will vary based on account objectives, restrictions, timing, fees, and market conditions.