Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn Devitt

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast, which comes to you live from Dublin, we take our usual tour through market dynamics but take a detour into nature finance, thanks to our hosts in Dublin – Gresham House Asset Management Ireland. We discuss inflation that is moving incontrovertibly in the wrong direction (citing the recent 4.2% print in the US) as well as the shifting stance of Central Banks, which is firmly towards tightening now, with Japan expected to be next and the ECB not far behind.The jobs narrative has taken a stark turn, probably as much for PR reasons as anything else – with the AI IPOs fast approaching. This sits at odds with an increasing wave of anti-AI populism as well as angst regarding AI’s march, and we turn to the Gresham House guests to reflect on whether this same angst and populism is in evidence in Ireland and the EU more generally.We discuss the grid investments in Ireland, which may be lacking, as well as the current consumer sentiment, as it relates to inflation and AI more generally.Moving then to nature finance, we discuss the enduring characteristics of this asset class, particularly around inflation participation, long term investment characteristics, low volatility and return potential. We discuss investor sentiment, where the asset class fits in the portfolio and whether this will ever be an asset class suitable for retail investors.

In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast - the second of the week - we have a fascinating conversation with Christie Townsend, long-time institutional investor (with the X/Twitter persona @ ROI Christie) with an audience of other senior allocators in Dallas.Our conversation is wonderfully rich - starting with inflation and the divergence between Main Street and Wall Street inflation and moving to the economic vibes with a focus on Texas in particular. As a pro growth state enjoying a real estate boom, and a shift in the percentage of state revenues that come from energy, "drilling in" to the economic vibes in Texas gives an interesting insight into the US more broadly - and we speak about a two speed USA. We have a particularly vigorous debate about policy safety nets and whether there are a good or a bad thing. We reflect on the policy intervention during Covid and the price that was ultimately paid for that - the spike in inflation and the K shaped economy that resulted.We move then to equity market momentum and the impact of FOMO and the analysis of the upcoming SpaceX IPO. We end with geopolitics and the role that this is playing today.

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast - the first of two this week, we feature my Moneta colleague Cynthia Kirkpatrick for a "Conversation in Clayton". In beautiful Clayton we discuss our usual five lenses of the Markets Happy Hour Podcast with the perspective of Cynthia's private client base. This unique "view from Main Street" includes insights on inflation as it is being experienced by clients as well as persistently high mortgage rates (which are getting higher as the Fed seems stuck). We ask if these higher rates are deterring home sales or downsizing moves, and then look at the growing cash pile - as expressed by the soaring amount in money market funds - which now exceeds $8.3 trillion. This dry powder pile will essentially act as a backstop on markets as momentum and FOMO continue to drive flows.We do a quick consumer vibe check on AI before then moving to behavior around portfolio construction and time horizon. With thanks to JJ Kirkpatrick for the exquisite video work.

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we reflect on a short - and in many places - sweltering - week in markets that was punctuated with two bombshells from Italy - the pope weighing in on AI and humanity as well as the ridiculed Ferrari EV - Luce. Clearly everyone is in a race - to the top or the bottom remains to be seen.Inflation numbers in the US continue to be challenging and we show in particular how wages have continued to be under pressure – as real wages are ticking down across the board. This is particularly linked to consumer sentiment and we know that consumer sentiment has been particularly low in the US, so this is another indicator of prolonged pain for the lower end consumer.In other “vibe” checks we reflect on a suggestion that there are now fewer policy tools – such as policy put – available to any central banks as a way to calm markets.Looking at the massive boost in market caps across the board we reflect on the three new members of the $1 trillion club in Asia – Samsung, TSMC and SK Hynix, which have represented the bulk of the recent outperformance in Asia. Other equity market datapoints are the deterioration of the S&P dividend yield as well as the equity market risk premium raising the question as to whether investors are being paid to take risk.We touch on the latest funding round secured by Anthropic as it races to the finish line to its pending IPO. The arms race for funding rounds and to IPO is clearly picking up pace, and all US stock markets have moved in a surge of momentum. We end with a reflection on emerging market risks and note how the likelihood of downward GDP revisions has gone up while both inflation and policy rates are also likely to rise. This is all linked to the outbreak of hostilities in Iran and is yet more evidence as to how Asia and Europe have seen the brunt of the current war much more than that of the US.

in this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we do a quick whistlestop tour through the traditional balanced portfolio, since it is the traditional bond and equity allocations that are attracting all of the buzz right now. From bond markets balking at rising fiscal obligations to equity markets drunk on optimism the balanced portfolio is a schizophrenic one.The oil price has been moving in opposite fashion to the newsflow regarding ships and the Strait of Hormuz and given the limited positive newsflow about two China-bound tankers making it through in the past 24 hours, the oil price fallen. Markets have responded positively to indications of a deal in the near future although little concrete has been stated.Equity markets have also been boosted by the US administration's commitment to invest in quantum computing as well as the ongoing outperformance in revenues from companies such as Nvidia. The "sprint" to IPOs by Anthropic, Open AI and SpaceX signify the desire to capture the momentum of today's heady markets. New highs have been reached in markets and investors show no signs of backing down. On the other hand bonds have rarely looked less attractive, and there has been a widespread sell-off and desire to exit duration. These two counterveiling sentiments are in a tense balance as we await further news in geopolitics.

In today’s podcast we come to you from a conference room in New York City with a two guest roster fresh off an investment committee where we all play a role. I’m delighted to be joined by Jon Chesshire of Sindia Capital and Jesus Amadeo, CFO of MDRC. We gathered to discuss our usual five topics - reflecting on the fact that New York City, like other key metropolitan centers, is experiencing a higher level of inflation than the “national” rate across the rest of the country. This underscores the unevenness with which inflation is felt, and why every institution and investor needs to factor their own inflation experience into a return assessment. We move then to discuss the new Chair at the Fed, the fact that Susan Roberts suggested that persistent inflation might lead them to hike and not cut next, and pondered whether the new Fed Chair was likely to set a new direction - with fewer updates, signalling and telegraphing of intention. We ask whether this might trouble markets that are used to a more regular diet of communication from the current Fed. Might we need to wean ourselves off the relative certainty and approach of “no surprises” that the current Fed has promoted?We ask what a U turn in bonds would look like and stress that the economic picture is unlikely to be robust enough to absorb a change of direction. Turning to jobs, we discuss the relatively strong recent jobs picture in the US and note that wages have started to decouple from deflation again - being largely flat over recent months. Moving to equity markets we examine the earnings season like no other that is continuing to stun markets, not just here but also in Asia, and markets are exhibiting a very clear rotation from the Mag 7 names into the semi-conductor picks and shovels names in order to “follow the money”.Finishing with a look outside the US we ask what opportunities exist in countries such as China, which is growing market share significantly in areas like robotics, maritime engineering and advanced railway, and where the stock market is displaying similar exuberance. Even Europe has unearthed some gems in the semi-conductor and AI adjacent space, underscoring that not all of the tech action has to happen in the US, and that there is an abundant and maybe underserved market in Europe that might need attention.

In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast, we are back in a salon-style session - this time live from Sydney on the eve of Tuesday's budget. Our special guest if Annette Beacher, investment manager of Hesta, an Australian Superannuation fund with over AUD$100 m in assets under management. This conversation is in the usual podcast format but we include data points and discussions of Australian economic fundamentals such as the recent third consecutive rate hike by the Royal Bank of Australia, and the inflation and led to it. We discuss the unique structure of the housing market here, the role it plays for consumers, and the state of the jobs market.We spend some time on the Superannuation system and the split of assets that most clients experience, the underpinning demand for Australian equities and the need to seek return abroad too, given the rising volume of assets in the mandated system. After a breakdown of the drivers of the Australian equity market snd a comparison with the AI and tech narrative driving the US indices we bring things back to local again by looking at the likeky contents of the next day's budget.

In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we are joined by Kristina Hooper, Chief Market Strategist of Man Group. a global alternative investment manager. In this role, she provides views and insights on the economy and markets.

In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast, which we held "salon style" in Singapore with a diverse group of guests, we bring you highlights from our multi-faceted discussion. First we track the spread of the inflation epidemic into this part of the world - note the divergence from economies with inflation at a six year high (Vietnam) and economies where inflation has succumbed to longer term deflationary expectations - as in Japan.We track the inflationary changes - which are impacting the region - in some areas more than others and ask whether affordability is an issue.This leads to a question as to whether an markets have the same K shape as the US market, and whether inequality is likely to persist and impact consumer demand – just as in the US a small percentage of the population (10%) are responsible for 50% of the consumer spending. We discuss recent equity market volatility and the new highs just reached, then assess the latest news regarding GameStop and E-Bay, as well as the consulting ventured being pursued separatelyThen we move to what investors are underestimating about this region - and the swiftness and dynamism behind AI rollouts, healthcare advances, and building from the ground up particularly in China are noted. The recent blocking of Meta's acquisition of Manus highlights the perceived threats to national security as well as IP and the protectionist responses that this is inducing.

In today’s Markets Happy Hour podcast we reflect on more bumper earnings from tech stocks, discuss the semi-conductor sector that is making huge strides as demand seems to be totally inelastic and in fact growing, despite price rises. We ask whether it will soon be time to “sell in May and go away”? Starting with inflation it is interesting to reflect on how much sentiment and expectations affect the ultimate outcome – in Japan for example the memory of an extended inflationary era is quite raw, so there even though inflation briefly got over 2% it is already more subdued. The Iran war has had the opposite effect on European inflation expectations which are already heading towards 2.75% for the end of the year, having been lower for some time. In terms of the rising components of inflation food and oil prices continue to be high. The Fed guard will officially change soon but the outgoing Chair, Jerome Powell is staying on as a Governor, which introduces some stability. Expectations have sharply turned around in terms of rate cuts with a minority now expecting rate hikes this year. The fact that the Fed described inflation as “misbehaving” is rue to have struck a chord.Equity markets remain buoyed by solid earnings and certain sectors like semi-conductors in particular which are experiencing a meteoric rise quite similar to pre-1999. Other factors of interest include the weak performance of the Bill Ackman “best ideas” fund and the fact that Ken Griffin thinks that retail investors had a poor understanding of private credit. While this may be true, it is more likely the case that their advisors lost conviction, which raises a more troubling possibility that these investments were not taking place with the right level of portfolio planning.