Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn Devitt

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - Live from Barcelona - April 24, 2025

In today's markets happy hour podcast we ask whether the swing from American Exceptionalism to Sell USA is another swing of the pendulum which has gone too far too fast. The podcast was recorded with a mixed audience of European investors and US investors in Europe at a conference, so we had a unique opportunity to discuss macro conditions on the ground in Europe and the reason for the relatively resilient bounce back in economies such as Spain. We talk about why some of the so-called headwinds in Europe - such as the regulatory landscape, the lack of innovation and the demographic crisis, can in fact be tailwinds when it comes to servicing the booming tourism industry.We look to earnings season, and the effect of uncertainty, as well as the difficulty of planning around tariffs, look at the price of gold - continuing to soar, and the decline in he relative outperformance of US markets relative to markets outside the US.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - Are We There Yet?

It has been a slightly less eventful week this week than last week, but it has still been characterized by a flooding of the zone from court disputes, immigration disputes, defunding of Ivy League institutions, unresolved trade negotiations, to interest rate cuts and pauses. The atmosphere has been charged as the rhetoric has increased, particularly between the president and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Recession chatter has continued unabated, and we analyze the nature of this potential recession - event driven, v. structural or cyclical and ask what that means for median duration and loss. Consumer sentiment has continued to be soft as tariff worries mount.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - LIVE from Baltimore - Towson University - April 10, 2025

In this LIVE Markets Happy Hour Podcast, which we hosted at Towson University in Baltimore, we hosted a group of industry professionals and finance students from Towson University and Loyola University. It has been a tumultuous week, and we reflected on the fact that this was the third podcast of the week, each one responding to a new twist in news flow. As of the markets close on Thursday April 10, we discussed the reprieve in the US CPI number - which was a respectable 2.4%, although noted the dulling effect of energy prices as oil prices reflected muted demand and recession fears. Interest rates had paid an outsized role in the recent roll back of tariff measures - or at least their stay of execution. However, as we noted, a cloud of uncertainty remained.I was particularly interested in hearing from the students about to graduate about their views on the market backdrop, their expectations for the job market and their use of AI in the jobs of the future. It was a heartening discussion. With thanks to Yannis Chulos-Saarinen and Chris Chulos for securing the wonderful location for this week's podcast, and to our industry guests for their generous contributions to the discussion.

Special Markets Happy Hour Podcast - April 9, 2025 - Upping the Ante

We are back with another Markets Happy Hour Podcast today to discuss the recent movements in the prevailing trade war as both sides up the ante. And now the US Treasury as well as other long term government bonds around the world have entered the chat . . they are selling off, undermining the previous good news that lower rates suggested and leading to conspiracy theories as to why.We examine the status of the US dollar and US treasuries as a safe haven, look at where there may be others and ask where the Fed will come down as it faces its latest dilemma.Continuing our discussion of the K shaped recovery, we explain that now some hardship is likely to affect all parts of the K - top, middle and bottom and what this is likely to do to sentiment going forward.Finally we implore investors to wait out this uncertainty and remember the lessons of previous crises and stay the course.

Special Markets Happy Hour Podcast: April 7 Signal, Noise and Strong Medicine

Tune in for today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast in which we discuss the dramatic developments since the tariff announcement on April 2, as we parse market reaction - separate the pre-existing conditions from the new ailment facing markets, and the medicine which the markets just received.We argue that the medicine is more akin to an amputation - a limb - or that of international trade as we knew it, sourcing goods from countries that could produce them more cheaply - with a comparative advantage - has essentially been cut off. We have to learn how to walk again. And while we may find a prosthetic limb in time, it may never be the same, but it will function.We also liken the developments to the tragic events of September 11, 2001. When the unimaginable happened, flying and airline security were never the same again - we have to check our large liquids, take off our shoes, lock the cockpit door - the same will happen in international trade - we will have to develop work arounds, diversify supply chains, prepare for risk events like this one. Even though this "medicine" may be reversible, unlike an actual amputation or September 11 as set out above, the effects of almost seeing it in force will be long lasting. We parse what we knew already - the Trump Trade indicators that have been in place since July 2024 - as well as what had been happening since the inauguration of President Trump. And then we analyze the medicine that has just been administered.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast April 3 - LIVE from Dallas - The Morning After

What a day we chose to hold our once rescheduled Markets Happy Hour Podcast in Dallas. We were hosted in the glorious surroundings of Old Parkland in the Executive Board Room and enjoyed a dialogue with a broad audience of family office investors, real estate, oil and gas and private credit experts. We naturally talked about tariffs - a lot, and showed slides that show that the recent tariffs will lead to the highest effective rate of US tariffs in decades. Throughout today it is clear that this is being met with severe market strain and some incredulity at their breadth and depth.Some commentary has focused on the means of calculation of what is in fact reciprocal - and it has been argued that the actual tariffs in effect abroad do not reflect those contained in the now infamous tariff chart used in the Rose Garden. Some of the rates include VAT which is imposed on all goods in Europe, while all reflect a calculation based on a goods deficit only, while in some cases there is a services surplus with these global trading partners.Markets have reacted violently and will continue to do so. It is interesting that the Russell 2000 has sold off more than the mainstream large cap indices - these indices should in theory be a little more protected than the larger multi-nationals, but what we are witnessing is a broader risk sell-off. Most affected are tech companies, shoe companies, manufacturers of furniture (highly reliant on imports) as well as other "risk on" assets such as cryptoassets.All global markets have been affected too - there is clearly a contagion effect, but a falling dollar has cushioned the blow somewhat.US 10 year rates have fallen and expectations of more rate cuts in 2025 may well play into Scott Bessent's preferred focus, but it is all an indication of souring growth expectations. And meanwhile other dynamics - such as a slowing in pace of AI expenditures and data centers - continue to swirl. It will be a dynamic and fluid situation for many weeks;

Markets Happy Hour Podcast March 28, 2025 - View from Over the Border

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast - which comes to you from over the Canadian Border and Banff, Alberta - we discuss the brewing uncertainty as the market quarter nears. In what has been the worst quarter for the S&P since 2023 we have wrestled with an unprecedented volume of news flow, noise - some of which even contains some "Signal". We look at the inflation numbers within the US which are not quite as reassuring as in Europe, where the next interest rate cut is all but assured. In the US, consumer sentiment is taking a dive, particularly as regards near term measures of income, job security and economic growth, and we cite the same growth uncertainty which has been in place since called out by the Fed at their last meeting. As early April and "Independence Day" nears, meaning the effective date for new tariffs we look at the simple as well as the systems thinking impact of such measures. We conclude with some observations on other moving parts - such as demand for AI-related IPOs (CoreWeave) as well as data centers.

Markets Happy Hour - LIVE from Charlotte - March 20, 2025 - Detoxes and Disconnections

In this very special Live Markets Happy Hour Podcast we gathered in Charlotte, North Carolina, at the Sunflower Baking Company, Koda location to discuss whether markets were detoxing on the way down from their sugar high, and how not everyone was feeling the pain globally.With the benefit of an audience that spanned business owners, healthcare professionals, asset owners and asset managers, we discussed inflation, the reaction of the US Fed to tariffs and whether they might be "transitory" in their inflationary effect, as well as whether there even was a Trump put any more.We discussed geopolitics and how things seemed to be unraveling quickly - proving that there was no magic wand that President Trump could wave to resolve multiple conflicts around the world and end with a discussion of certainty, and how we can operate in this uncertain environment.With thanks to Shawn Paulk of Moneta, who represents the firm in Charlotte for contributing to our audience, and Jack Parrish, owner of the Sunflower Baking Company who provided the gorgeous location and delicious treats.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - Some Perspective - March 14, 2025

In today's podcast - much abbreviated due to travel logistics - we get to the heart of the recent market downturn, the uncertainty coursing through markets and why it is damaging, as well as the surge in interest in European stocks - value stocks in particular. Gold is riding high amid this uncertainty, while domestic political (government shutdown) drama continues to add to the flurry of noise. We attempt to add some perspective to the current market downturn - citing the fact that the median S&P drawdown over the past 40 years has been -10%, which is where the current drawdown sits approximately, and also that the market corrects by this amount approximately once every two years. This is valuable perspective when we try to contextualize the current turmoil, and will have a follow up episode where we discuss uncertainty and speaking with clients.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - LIVE from Salt Lake City - March 6, 2025

In this second live series in as many weeks, we reflect on the recent volatility around tariff news, and with the benefit of two audience members focused on, respectively, emerging markets public equities and private equity and venture capital, we discuss how this uncertainty is being felt and acted upon.Europe seems to be experiencing a renaissance of sorts this week - with an indication of the release of Germany's fiscal brake bringing an almost giddiness to sentiment there - with expenditure likely to be as much as 900 billion Euro. This may be one of the unintended consequences of the JD Vance challenge to Europe, and it may make a seismic shift in fiscal positioning. The ECB just cut rates and seems to have got ahead of any fiscal stimulus by delivering its sixth interest rate cut - coupled with a sixth downgrade to economic growth projections. There was a sign that this may be it for a while - particularly if the fiscal pedal is now pressed, it might be possible to ease off the monetary pedal. We talk too about whether there is a Trump put in markets - whether there is a level at which market pain might be too much to bear, and certainly thus far the pause on tariffs has not really given markets a chance to experience this.