Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn Devitt

Markets Happy Hour Podcast June 13, 2025 - A Mid-Summer Reprieve - But Not for the US dollar

In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we look at the state of affairs in markets as we approach mid-summer and marvel at the fact that all assets seem relatively subdued in terms of activity - with the exception of the US dollar.US inflation has been modest (2.4%), which is leading to a siren call for more rate cuts, although the US Fed has still resisted pressure - despite the fact that other central banks around the world are clearly on a downward trajectory with their monetary policy.Equity markets are now above where they were at the date of President Trump's inauguration, although non-US markets have outperformed, and this reflects the slow erosion of US exceptionalism. This is most acutely felt - however, in the case of the US dollar, which is now at a three year low, and essentially has turned some fund managers into currency managers. Meanwhile geopolitics continues to be vexed and thorny, which is having some impact on the oil price. The Markets Happy Hour Podcast is a weekly check-in on market conditions and what it means for investment portfolios. Aoifinn Devitt is an advisor to family offices and institutions around investing for a richer future. She believes that understanding the market context in which we operate is a key part of navigating that future with confidence and agency.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast June 5, 2025 - Biting the Hand that Feeds Us?

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we examine a week that has been a little lack luster for equities as tariff U-turns continue, the geopolitical picture remains murky and as divergence on inflation and interest rates create unexpected openings for non-US assets. We look to the potential penalties for non-US investors holding US investments that are buried in the Big Beautiful Bill and ask whether we can take non-US investor appetite for US assets for granted, and if we can take foreign students’ interest in US institutions for granted as uncertainty looms over student visa statuses. For now, this seems to be targeted on Harvard and other select Ivy League institutions, but it could have broader ramifications too. Non-US markets continue to thrive as assets flow out of the US at the margin, and as the dollar and oil remain weak, ongoing sharp rhetoric is feeding uncertainty in the US, which even the bright lights of AI can't quench. The Markets Happy Hour Podcast is a weekly check-in on market conditions and what it means for investment portfolios. Aoifinn Devitt is an advisor to family offices and institutions around investing for a richer future. She believes that understanding the market context in which we operate is a key part of navigating that future with confidence and agency.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - May 29, 2025 - A Rose by Any Other Name

In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we ponder whether the prevailing narrative in the new market era is less a long-form narrative, and more a series of Youtube shorts - short vignettes which can literally capture the mood of a day, and then fizzle out entirely. A case in point was the changing of the narrative around the judicial ruling that seemed to "void" the tariffs of the Trump administration (the US Court of International Trade) and then the ruling itself was put on hold pending an appeal by the White House. This may have come too late to deter markets, which were already celebrating the relaxation of tariffs on Europe, bumper earnings and growth reported by Nvidia and a return to prominence of the Mag 7. We discuss how inflation and its own narrative continues to wrestle with the tariff story, and how different operators are passing through tariff expenses in different ways - and getting away with it for the most part, due to the ever-resilient US consumer. Speaking of which, the surprising jump in US consumer confidence is difficult to explain - and it sits at odds with a dip in confidence among CEOs - 83% of whom predict a recession in the US in the next 18 months. The Markets Happy Hour Podcast is a weekly check-in on market conditions and what it means for investment portfolios. Aoifinn Devitt is an advisor to family offices and institutions around investing for a richer future, She believes that understanding the market context in which we operate is a key part of navigating that future with confidence and agency.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - May 23, 2025: Sun Downers and Bond Vigilantes

This week's podcast is coming to you a day late due to a typical May milestone - a high school graduation. It was fortuitous though as it enabled us to capture the latest development in tariffs, a new threat against the EU in the form of 50% tariffs, a move that send EU stocks into a late week tailspin. Other developments include the Big Beautiful Tax Bill passing the house, and we analyze what this means for the fiscal deficit as well as the behavior of the bond market - which has continued to be "Yippy" leading to stretched bond yields.Equity markets have been relatively flat over the course of the week, with some standouts - such as solar stocks due to the inclusion in the Big Beautiful Bill of the removal of the green-energy subsidies that have supported the renewable energy sector. These stocks fell precipitously in the last two days.As Bitcoin passed $110,000 and the dollar reached a critical support level it was clear that there is some uneasiness in the air around the new tax bill as well as US assets. More on the concept of ABUSA (Anything But USA) next week.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast May 15, 2025 - Live from NYC - A Fever Dream?

In this week's podcast we reflect on what some commentators have described as a "fever dream" - the essential round trip of US markets since the beginning of the year, whereby they have recently made up lost ground - despite tremendous month to month and intra-week volatility. So should we proceed as if the past few months - including the post Liberation day crisis - never happened?We first look at the hard data - inflation is subdued although this may be a temporary state pending the effect of tariffs. When parsing the data further, it becomes clear that some of the fall in inflation is due to the fall in service inflation, which is not directly subject to tariffs, so may be more sticky as a contributor. This lower inflationary environment now mirrors that of Europe and the UK, and could, in theory allow some space for the Fed to ease. There is, so far, no sign of that however, and we discuss what may become a different "framework" in which the Fed may operate in its decision making going forward. Interest rate cuts seem to be further out on the horizon for now though as expectations have come down and the bond market takes things into its own hands - sending the yield on the 10 year treasury to over 4.5%. Upon analysis, the Big Beautiful tax bill looks set to spook bond investors further as it is likely to add to the fiscal deficit, thanks to a generous swathe of cuts, and this lack of fiscal discipline could well stoke fear in an already wavering market for US dollars. Moving to market conditions we reflect on the fragile nature of the news flow that is sending markets into overdrive (e.g. soundbites without detail on trade) and the still busy set of geo-political headlines, in a week where President Trump's visit to the Middle East dominated the discussion.We were delighted to be joined by Jon Cheshire, who works with Clearbrook Consulting, on this podcast and thank him for his many contributions to the discussion.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - May 8, 2025 - Another Kind of US Exceptionalism?

In today's slightly shorter podcast - due to a pending Bloomberg appearance - we discuss the transition from the tariff setting stage to the deal-making stage and markets have responded with enthusiasm.The deals to date - when probed - may have over-promised and under-delivered though, and there may be little "there" there, upon examination. For example in the US/UK deal it seems to have been restricted to cars and metal on the parts of the UK exports and agricultural products and Boeing orders on the part of UK imports. It is worth remembering that the 10% tariff is still in place, and that the UK was one of the few markets that previously had a trading surplus with the US. The trend of US exceptionalism continues in three distinct domains:1. Interest rates, where the US Fed remains firm on pausing, while other central banks around the world are cutting rates - the latest being the Bank of England, which just cut its rates and suggested that it will cut further. 2. Equity markets - where the equity markets in the US continue to lag non-US markets slightly on the upside, particularly due to technical factors such as flows out of US assets.3. The new Pope, Pope Leo XIV, is the first American Pope, much to the delight of Catholics throughout the US, particularly his home town of Chicago. Finally, we discuss rising geo-political risks, particularly from the newest front of tensions being India/Pakistan.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - Is the Economy Anti-Fragile?

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - Live from Barcelona - April 24, 2025

In today's markets happy hour podcast we ask whether the swing from American Exceptionalism to Sell USA is another swing of the pendulum which has gone too far too fast. The podcast was recorded with a mixed audience of European investors and US investors in Europe at a conference, so we had a unique opportunity to discuss macro conditions on the ground in Europe and the reason for the relatively resilient bounce back in economies such as Spain. We talk about why some of the so-called headwinds in Europe - such as the regulatory landscape, the lack of innovation and the demographic crisis, can in fact be tailwinds when it comes to servicing the booming tourism industry.We look to earnings season, and the effect of uncertainty, as well as the difficulty of planning around tariffs, look at the price of gold - continuing to soar, and the decline in he relative outperformance of US markets relative to markets outside the US.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - Are We There Yet?

It has been a slightly less eventful week this week than last week, but it has still been characterized by a flooding of the zone from court disputes, immigration disputes, defunding of Ivy League institutions, unresolved trade negotiations, to interest rate cuts and pauses. The atmosphere has been charged as the rhetoric has increased, particularly between the president and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Recession chatter has continued unabated, and we analyze the nature of this potential recession - event driven, v. structural or cyclical and ask what that means for median duration and loss. Consumer sentiment has continued to be soft as tariff worries mount.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - LIVE from Baltimore - Towson University - April 10, 2025

In this LIVE Markets Happy Hour Podcast, which we hosted at Towson University in Baltimore, we hosted a group of industry professionals and finance students from Towson University and Loyola University. It has been a tumultuous week, and we reflected on the fact that this was the third podcast of the week, each one responding to a new twist in news flow. As of the markets close on Thursday April 10, we discussed the reprieve in the US CPI number - which was a respectable 2.4%, although noted the dulling effect of energy prices as oil prices reflected muted demand and recession fears. Interest rates had paid an outsized role in the recent roll back of tariff measures - or at least their stay of execution. However, as we noted, a cloud of uncertainty remained.I was particularly interested in hearing from the students about to graduate about their views on the market backdrop, their expectations for the job market and their use of AI in the jobs of the future. It was a heartening discussion. With thanks to Yannis Chulos-Saarinen and Chris Chulos for securing the wonderful location for this week's podcast, and to our industry guests for their generous contributions to the discussion.