Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn Devitt

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - December 26, 2025 Short Post Christmas Round Up

This week’s Markets Happy Hour Podcast comes to you the day after Christmas and is the last of 2025. We ask whether in what often seems to be a season of plenty – we are about to enter the year of “enough”. Will 2026 be the year when consumers declare that they have had enough of the productivity enhancements that technology – and particularly AI – can bring? Will they have had enough of price rises and vote with their feet accordingly? Will affordability become the new siren call? Will they have had enough tokenization and cut some of their streaming subscriptions – again hearkening back to affordability?Consumer spending data continues to underscore the sharp K shaped divide – with over 50% of consumer spending in the US coming from only 10% of the households. This supports the fact that thus far in this cycle, the struggles of the consumer at the lower end of the spectrum don’t move markets. Markets buy what they know. Most market participants come from the upper earning end of the spectrum. Other trends of note in the markets as we near the end of the year are the strong contribution of cyclicals and the fact that Asian markets have actually outperformed US and European equity markets year to date. Flows into ETFs are at record levels, and now are approaching $60 trillion in traded value with over $1.5 trillion in flows and over 1000 ETFs launched in 2025 alone. While this data does not differentiate between active and passive ETFs the majority of ETFs are passive (90%) which suggests that the flows into passive investing remain extremely robust. Meanwhile Gold is on a trajectory to have its best year since 1979, having hit records on no less than 50 occasions this year alone. The year has been framed as a “defining” one for metals. The dollar, on the other hand, is set for its largest annual drop since 2017.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast December 18, 2025 - Festive Countdown

In today’s Markets Happy Hour Podcast - our last before the Christmas break, we ask ourselves how happy markets are feeling in this market are joy - and the answer is, well, a touch of Bah, Humbug. We first start with the surprise drop in UK inflation which may well serve as a welcome Christmas treat for the UK consumer. With inflation now coming in at 3.2% in the UK (and US inflation expectations of closer to 3.1%) could it be that the UK has slayed the stagflationary beast of Christmas past? The Bank of England is poised to cut rates today to 3.75% (from 4%), just as the US did in early December and current expectations in the US are around one further rate cut in 2026, although it is quite clear that there could well be more if the new Chair decides to start with a splash. Despite this lower inflation and recent rate cut, the consumer remains hyper focused on inflation and affordability, which continues to hurt consumer sentiment and has become elevated to a live and real election issue. Markets have been unsettled recently despite clear signs that commentators and strategists are bullish, and investors too, evidenced by the flows into equity funds and the fact that cash levels have fallen to recent lows. This is somewhat surprising given the still meaningful return on cash and it is in sync with the broad optimism that are seeing in the now ubiquitous 2026 outlooks.The wrinkle in this optimism is the recent skittishness in equity markets just in the last few days, most of it traceable to AI concerns, and we discuss the unease around Meta’s “turbulent” AI trajectory, which has led to it underperforming some of its Magnificent 7 counterparts. In fact, if we look to the breadth of the Magnificent 7 Counterparts and how they have performed year to date it has really been Alphabet and Nvidia that have been outliers, as the chart below shows. Tesla has had the most negative sentiment, probably due to some unique leadership and market factors, but even the other stocks - despite dominating the newsflow - remain bare round trips year to date. We look at some of the change in sentiment around China, which has seen a fascinating U turn of its own - having gone from “uninvestable” in the aftermath of rising trade tensions, concern about regulatory overreach and concern about a precarious retail sector. While fund managers assiduously removed China from EM portfolios - creating EM ex China strategies, behind the scenes something was changing. This came to the fore during Covid, when it was apparent that surveillance and technology in China had reached sophisticated levels, but also the launch of Deepseek sealed the impression that there was a giant emerging in not only AI but also EVs. This has now dawned upon investors and it has been not lost on them that Chinese stock markets have started to really resemble technology sector developments and could be a real play on technology - but maybe a questionable diversifier to the US, which is also, itself, a play on technology. It has also been a time of turbulence in geopolitics with governments in Europe now openly speaking about the threat from Russia, and President Trump imposing a blockade on Venezuelan oil. This has already been reflected in the oil price and is likely to be a fairly contained regional skirmish, but it is nonetheless yet another piece of flooding of the zone, which will make 2026 hard to navigate. Moving to other asset classes we reflect on the fourth annual loss for Bitcoin, although it significantly lower than previous annual losses, but ask what this means for risk sentiment broadly and the likely behaviour of this asset class. We reflect on where portfolios may sit now that we are at the end of 2025. Clearly equity markets have done well and we do now see breadth creeping in, not only to markets themselves but also by investors seeking to diversify into other cap sectors and other asset classes. Bonds remain expensive, so are less interesting as return drivers, and we continue to stress diversified (global) equity exposure as strong growth drivers as well as infrastructure and real assets, which build in both diversification and inflation resilience. Finally, we wish all of our listeners and followers a wonderful holiday season. See you on December 26th for our next episode, and thank you for your support in 2025.

Special Episode: Live from St. Louis with Stephen Douglass

Today’s Markets Happy Hour Podcast is recorded live in St. Louis, just ahead of the holidays, and features a wide-ranging and candid conversation with Stephen Douglass, Chief Economist at NISA.We begin with an economy “vibe check,” exploring the growing disconnect between headline inflation data and lived experience. From partisan consumer sentiment to the K-shaped reality facing households and businesses, we discuss why inflation still feels very real for lower-income consumers even as markets remain buoyant.We then turn to monetary policy, unpacking the high probability of a near-term Fed rate cut, the concept of “risk-management cuts,” and how the Fed is balancing downside labor risks against renewed tariff-driven inflation pressures. We compare the US outlook with other major central banks and ask whether policy rates may now be flatter — and higher — for longer than markets expect.A deeper dive into fixed income follows, focusing on why bonds are behaving unusually. Despite tight credit spreads, all-in yields remain attractive, raising important questions about portfolio construction, liquidity, and the growing fragility of the Treasury market as supply rises and traditional sources of demand wane.From there, we explore the K-shaped economy across multiple dimensions — consumers, corporations, and capital markets — including why large firms continue to add jobs while small businesses shed them, and what that means for the resilience narrative.We spend significant time on private credit, examining where stress is building beneath the surface, the rise of PIK interest and “extend and pretend” dynamics, and why headline default statistics may understate the true level of risk. This leads naturally into a discussion of private equity, venture capital, and whether the current wave of retail democratization is well-timed.Turning to real estate, we assess surprising shifts in vacancy rates across industrial and residential markets, alongside emerging shortages in top-tier office space. We also touch on data centers, infrastructure demand, and the energy and power implications of the AI build-out.Finally, we tackle equities and AI, discussing valuation concentration, bubble dynamics, and why timing matters as much as narrative. We close with a sobering look at US fiscal sustainability, the limited policy levers available, and what all of this means for investors as we look ahead to 2026.As always, the conversation ends with a clear focus on what these macro crosscurrents mean for real-world portfolios.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast Live from Miami Beach - December 9, 2025 - Is the Water warm?

Today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast is live from Miami, and was kindly accommodated by the ALTSMIA conference in Miami. We start with a discussion of an economy vibe check where one guest describes a basket of identical goods being tracked from Whole Foods, which is up a whopping 30% year on year - significantly higher inflation than is being reported in the data. We turn then to the seemingly high probability of a US rate cut this week, and compare the trajectories of other central banks, which, interestingly have been thought to have reached a bottom in terms of rates again after some stabilization. Moving to equity markets we reflect on what our expectations were at the beginning of 2025, and whether the concept of resilience to threat is going to be "forever" or whether we should still be mindful of cracks that can be seismic to a sector such as banks or private credit.We look in particular at real estate and some of the bright spots (e.g. London office) as well as the warning signs - e.g. vacancy rates ticking up in residential and some areas of industrial. We also examine some stats regarding private equity and venture capital returns and ask whether now is the right time for democratization.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast December 4, 2025 - with David Miller - Code Red and Red Alerts

In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we were delighted to feature David Miller, Director of Investments at Conficap based in Finland. David is a long-term commentator and markets expert, having spent years as a portfolio manager, most recently at Quilter Cheviot in London. He has written a regular market newsletter for many years, and currently it is called "Northern Lights" - always a stimulating and riveting read.We start with our usual analysis of inflation, and David shares his insights from a low-inflation, relatively high tax jurisdiction, and we return to the US analysis of wage inflation which shows that lower end earners have seen their wage inflation trail that of higher earners, which only accentuates the K shaped inequality in US markets.We move then to interest rates, and the consolidating probability around a rate cut trajectory in the US, and compare it to the current viewpoint in the Eurozone, where the risk of overheating is significantly different.We turn then to the somewhat unusual behavior of bond markets, whereby long term government yields remain elevated, even in Japan, which indicates a shift that has not been seen for decades. We reflect on the reasons for this shift - suggesting that it shifts the definition of government bonds as a risk free asset, but by the same token also presents them as reasonable ways to generate a yield, while inflation remains subdued. This may alter the use case for bonds as investors learn how to price in the looming fiscal problems with developed economies. Coming to equity markets, there has been a spot of indigestion in the US in the aftermath of a volatile but ultimately flat November and the declaration of a Code Red by Open AI as it downs tools to focus on its core models, sensing encroachment from Google and others, has only sparked more concerns of cracks in the AI ediface. Earnings present a robust picture with the virtually all sectors displaying a high percentage of components beating expectations, and healthcare at the top of the list. This is positive news and suggests there could be a broadening of market strength beyond the concentration that has been in place year to date. The flipside of this positive story has, of course, been what strong earnings mean for corporate costs, and what this in turn means for labor. Finally after a discussion of the Northern European perspective on the current global economy - compressed into an impossibly short space of time, we move to other asset classes that are of interest - David comments on his positive view on India as well as gold, and we discuss some of the key dynamics that drive that.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - Thanksgiving Day Special -- with Morningstar’s Lindsey Stewart

In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we are celebrating Thanksgiving Day, and noting the many things that US investors have to be thankful for - a market that pulled itself together sufficiently to end the month broadly flat, a likely incoming Fed chairman who is positively inclined towards rate cuts, and an economy that continues to show its resilience. Plus Thanksgiving staples seem to be down in price - which is good news for lovers of Turkey and cranberry sauce!We were delighted to welcome Lindsey Stewart on to the podcast to discuss Morningstar's Institutional Insights across our usual five topics, and we debate whether inflation is in fact down (outside the Thanksgiving basket) while taking the temperature on the economy, this time focusing on fund managers who are definitely "glass half full" at this time. We look at the ongoing "low hiring/low firing" job market and ask whether it is likely to change, then move to look at the recovery in equity markets, which has brought a relatively volatile November to a close. Interesting dynamics currently in markets include Nvidia driving market volatility, an increasing discernment between stocks (e.g. Google and Nvidia) and a pickiness among stockpickers.Moving on to the UK budget we discuss the highest tax regime in history and the nature of this experiment which seems set to rival the NYC mayoral elections in terms of the concern that it will lead to an exodus of high earners. Markets have received this news relatively well and we will watch to see whether it is in fact a quencher of growth as has been widely surmised.Finally, we examine Bitcoin's torrid performance of late and the fact that so called "DeFi" companies have trailed traditional finance companies recently, suggesting that old stalwarts still have value in today's markets' craving for some certainty.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - Special Edition with Paula Campbell Roberts of KKR

In this special edition of the Markets Happy Hour Podcast we are joined by Paula Campbell Roberts who is the Chief Investment Strategist for the Global Wealth business and a Managing Director on KKR’s Global Macro & Asset Allocation teamAs usual we debate the implications of the shifting inflationary, interest rate and equity market environments for our clients and end with a discussion of the asset mix that KKR espouses for wealth clients according to their investment objectives - income generation, capital preservation and return seeking. Starting with inflation we examine the higher "resting heart rate" of inflation and the role that higher electricity prices play in that. Given the demand for data centers and power usage relating to that we draw upon recent charts showing the power demands of data centers and comparing them to the power consumption of entire countries.We move then to some of the indicators around AI and technology stocks, and in particular the massive amounts of capex needed as well as how this will be funded (increasingly by resorting to debt). Finally we move to the trajectory of the USD, which has stabilized and is somewhat stronger now. The topics presented herein are related to financial markets, geopolitics, and world news. This material is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation. Please see the important disclosures within the video contained on the presentation slides.

Markets Happy Hour November 20, 2025 - Featuring Thoughts from The Loft Guru Pete Drewienkiewicz

In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we feature the legendary Pete Drewienkiewicz of Thoughts from The Loft (TFTL) fame (of Gallagher Benefit Company, formerly Redington in the UK) and a robust discussion ensues. Starting with "Food Glorious Food" and its driver of inflation, we examine whether inflation will rest at the higher 3.6% level in the UK and what trajectory is likely in the US. We move then to the different apparent interest rate plateaus across the US, the UK and Europe, and ask whether the UK should be "resting" at a higher level than the US, given the clear strains on its economic growth. We turn then to discussing what this means for holding cash today. Equity markets again take centre stage, and we reflect on the recent Nvidia earnings release and then turn to a fascinating piece of analysis that Pete has drawn upon in TFTL the strong earnings growth across all markets, not just the US. While US margins still trump those in other countries, other valuation metrics don't necessarily point to stark US exceptionalism. This underscores the challenge of true diversification today. Finally we touch on the recent excellent analysis of Total Portfolio Approach by Toby Nangle in the Financial Times, and ask whether it is all it is cracked up to be. We do note, however, that some asset class "walls" have started to become porous as new asset classes evolve and investors allocate between them.You can write to Pete directly to get on his weekly distribution list for his excellent newsletter.

Inflation Isn’t Just One Number - It’s Your Life

Full Episode: Too Big to Fail - 2.0 and Beyondhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BQeihjN5UO0

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - Live from Dublin

In today's live podcast from Dublin we do a comparative vibe check on the Irish economy compared to the US economy. We speak about the pressure of inflation on investor portfolios and ask what investors should do to guard against that.In looking like a now-familiar chart plotting the size of the US stock market v. the rest of the world the question is asked as to whether investors are in fact happy running that level of risk, particularly as it pertains to US stocks and tech stocks in particular. One guest suggested that the best approach was to communicate early and often to investors about the realistic expectations as to risk and return and how to modify their portfolios accordingly.We cycled back to AI, the bubble question and the use case and collected some "anecdata" from the guests in the room as to how they were using AI in their personal and professional lives, citing some of the shortcomings of the dataset so far. In general there was a skepticism around its broader, aspirational use case, and definitely a sensitivity to cost. When discussing AI as a kitchen table issue it was clear that when translated into monthly consumer expenditure the revenue projections seem untenable. This begs the question as to who will pay - inevitably enterprises - and where they will take money from in order to achieve this.