Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn Devitt

Special Markets Happy Hour Podcast: April 7 Signal, Noise and Strong Medicine

Tune in for today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast in which we discuss the dramatic developments since the tariff announcement on April 2, as we parse market reaction - separate the pre-existing conditions from the new ailment facing markets, and the medicine which the markets just received.We argue that the medicine is more akin to an amputation - a limb - or that of international trade as we knew it, sourcing goods from countries that could produce them more cheaply - with a comparative advantage - has essentially been cut off. We have to learn how to walk again. And while we may find a prosthetic limb in time, it may never be the same, but it will function.We also liken the developments to the tragic events of September 11, 2001. When the unimaginable happened, flying and airline security were never the same again - we have to check our large liquids, take off our shoes, lock the cockpit door - the same will happen in international trade - we will have to develop work arounds, diversify supply chains, prepare for risk events like this one. Even though this "medicine" may be reversible, unlike an actual amputation or September 11 as set out above, the effects of almost seeing it in force will be long lasting. We parse what we knew already - the Trump Trade indicators that have been in place since July 2024 - as well as what had been happening since the inauguration of President Trump. And then we analyze the medicine that has just been administered.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast April 3 - LIVE from Dallas - The Morning After

What a day we chose to hold our once rescheduled Markets Happy Hour Podcast in Dallas. We were hosted in the glorious surroundings of Old Parkland in the Executive Board Room and enjoyed a dialogue with a broad audience of family office investors, real estate, oil and gas and private credit experts. We naturally talked about tariffs - a lot, and showed slides that show that the recent tariffs will lead to the highest effective rate of US tariffs in decades. Throughout today it is clear that this is being met with severe market strain and some incredulity at their breadth and depth.Some commentary has focused on the means of calculation of what is in fact reciprocal - and it has been argued that the actual tariffs in effect abroad do not reflect those contained in the now infamous tariff chart used in the Rose Garden. Some of the rates include VAT which is imposed on all goods in Europe, while all reflect a calculation based on a goods deficit only, while in some cases there is a services surplus with these global trading partners.Markets have reacted violently and will continue to do so. It is interesting that the Russell 2000 has sold off more than the mainstream large cap indices - these indices should in theory be a little more protected than the larger multi-nationals, but what we are witnessing is a broader risk sell-off. Most affected are tech companies, shoe companies, manufacturers of furniture (highly reliant on imports) as well as other "risk on" assets such as cryptoassets.All global markets have been affected too - there is clearly a contagion effect, but a falling dollar has cushioned the blow somewhat.US 10 year rates have fallen and expectations of more rate cuts in 2025 may well play into Scott Bessent's preferred focus, but it is all an indication of souring growth expectations. And meanwhile other dynamics - such as a slowing in pace of AI expenditures and data centers - continue to swirl. It will be a dynamic and fluid situation for many weeks;

Markets Happy Hour Podcast March 28, 2025 - View from Over the Border

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast - which comes to you from over the Canadian Border and Banff, Alberta - we discuss the brewing uncertainty as the market quarter nears. In what has been the worst quarter for the S&P since 2023 we have wrestled with an unprecedented volume of news flow, noise - some of which even contains some "Signal". We look at the inflation numbers within the US which are not quite as reassuring as in Europe, where the next interest rate cut is all but assured. In the US, consumer sentiment is taking a dive, particularly as regards near term measures of income, job security and economic growth, and we cite the same growth uncertainty which has been in place since called out by the Fed at their last meeting. As early April and "Independence Day" nears, meaning the effective date for new tariffs we look at the simple as well as the systems thinking impact of such measures. We conclude with some observations on other moving parts - such as demand for AI-related IPOs (CoreWeave) as well as data centers.

Markets Happy Hour - LIVE from Charlotte - March 20, 2025 - Detoxes and Disconnections

In this very special Live Markets Happy Hour Podcast we gathered in Charlotte, North Carolina, at the Sunflower Baking Company, Koda location to discuss whether markets were detoxing on the way down from their sugar high, and how not everyone was feeling the pain globally.With the benefit of an audience that spanned business owners, healthcare professionals, asset owners and asset managers, we discussed inflation, the reaction of the US Fed to tariffs and whether they might be "transitory" in their inflationary effect, as well as whether there even was a Trump put any more.We discussed geopolitics and how things seemed to be unraveling quickly - proving that there was no magic wand that President Trump could wave to resolve multiple conflicts around the world and end with a discussion of certainty, and how we can operate in this uncertain environment.With thanks to Shawn Paulk of Moneta, who represents the firm in Charlotte for contributing to our audience, and Jack Parrish, owner of the Sunflower Baking Company who provided the gorgeous location and delicious treats.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - Some Perspective - March 14, 2025

In today's podcast - much abbreviated due to travel logistics - we get to the heart of the recent market downturn, the uncertainty coursing through markets and why it is damaging, as well as the surge in interest in European stocks - value stocks in particular. Gold is riding high amid this uncertainty, while domestic political (government shutdown) drama continues to add to the flurry of noise. We attempt to add some perspective to the current market downturn - citing the fact that the median S&P drawdown over the past 40 years has been -10%, which is where the current drawdown sits approximately, and also that the market corrects by this amount approximately once every two years. This is valuable perspective when we try to contextualize the current turmoil, and will have a follow up episode where we discuss uncertainty and speaking with clients.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - LIVE from Salt Lake City - March 6, 2025

In this second live series in as many weeks, we reflect on the recent volatility around tariff news, and with the benefit of two audience members focused on, respectively, emerging markets public equities and private equity and venture capital, we discuss how this uncertainty is being felt and acted upon.Europe seems to be experiencing a renaissance of sorts this week - with an indication of the release of Germany's fiscal brake bringing an almost giddiness to sentiment there - with expenditure likely to be as much as 900 billion Euro. This may be one of the unintended consequences of the JD Vance challenge to Europe, and it may make a seismic shift in fiscal positioning. The ECB just cut rates and seems to have got ahead of any fiscal stimulus by delivering its sixth interest rate cut - coupled with a sixth downgrade to economic growth projections. There was a sign that this may be it for a while - particularly if the fiscal pedal is now pressed, it might be possible to ease off the monetary pedal. We talk too about whether there is a Trump put in markets - whether there is a level at which market pain might be too much to bear, and certainly thus far the pause on tariffs has not really given markets a chance to experience this.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - LIVE from Tampa, February 27, 2025 - In the Crosshairs

In this week's live Markets Happy Hour Podcast, we traveled to Tampa, Florida, and were privileged to share insights from post-hurricane recovery and consumer sentiment on the ground, as well as observations from professionals who focus on private debt and venture debt. We started with a discussion of recent market developments - what some have termed Trump 2.1. The fall in the 10 year yield, the dollar and the oil price may stack up like a "wish list" of the new administration, but it actually seemed to be a reaction to less than positive market news. The focus of the week has been on DOGE and its immediate effect on government agencies, a well as its more indirect effect on markets and sentiment. We examine the fall in consumer sentiment, the rise in uncertainty and some of the unintended consequences of broad geopolitical action - such as the galvanizing of support within Europe for more defense spending. We do a bit more of a deep dive into US v. European defense spending with one guest suggesting he would choose a relative value trade given that a less expansionist USA needs to spend less on defense while Europe clearly needs - and has committed - to spend more. We hear a lot too about pendulums swinging back and forth - often too far in one direction, as is the case with anti-engagement and anti-DEI sentiment today, and as may be the case with digital asset euphoria. Many of our participants believed in taking the long view and waiting out some of the short term market volatility, which is of course easier said than done.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - February 21 - What’s Next for Europe?

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we come to you from Europe, and do a deep dive into that region - its stock market and its prospects. In Europe, as is the case elsewhere, there is a bit of reeling from the clear conclusions both from the Munich security conference and its aftermath - that the transatlantic alliances as we had known them for the last few decades no longer exist.This new world order will take some time to digest although markets, as ever, may have either cut through the noise, or jumped to the wrong conclusion. European markets have performed strongly since the Trump inauguration, and China has also seen some signs of life as the consumer stirs - despite what could be a pending residential property crisis there. For now all eyes are on German elections at the weekend to see if they transpire as the polls show - with little volatility and more of the status quo - or if they create the kind of surprise that French elections sowed.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - February 14, 2025 . . I’m not Loving It . .or the New Abnormal

This week's podcast comes to you one day late - on Valentine's Day - due to travel, but is this love we feel in the Air? Hardly . . there is rather a sense of inundation with government policies, geopolitical surprises and unconventional developments that has led the sense of a new "abnormal". An unwelcome US inflation print - 3% annualized - in January initially sent markets into a negative tailspin with stocks falling and the US ten year yield spiking. . but then, it was revealed that the devil was in the detail. While energy prices contributed a little to the increase, there was also the Personal Consumption Expenditure which was a bit more subdued with a 2 handle - 2.6-2.7%. This boosted market confidence, and we were back to the familiar ebullience that has characterized most of the start to the year.This is even more staggering if we think of the volley of news around DOGE cuts into the federal workforce and spending, bold corporate actions (c.f. Elon Musk's $98 bn bid for Open AI - which may now be pulled it if returns to non-profit status). Tariff news has been volatile too - with both big bangs (25% tariffs on steel and aluminum) and incremental (reciprocal) tariffs under discussion, and maybe did the boy cry wolf? Markets don't seem to be as moved today by tariff rhetoric.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - February 6, 2025 - Spend, Spend, Spend

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we digest the challenging month of January and reflect on where we stand now that markets have contended with President Trump's grand entrance.And President Trump knows how to make an entrance. The torrent of executive actions in the first few week's of the administration (54 to date) have created a deluge for markets who are still grappling with the election results, the warp speed movement of technology and a post-inflationary reality that is still only coming into focus. There have been a series of announcements in January and early February - from the launch of Deepseek to the surprise tariffs (since paused) on Mexico, Canada and China, and markets are increasingly jittery and lurching from one piece of news to another.This leads us to question the resilience of both corporate projections as well as markets themselves and overall we expect public equity markets to have more volatility going forward, and that fixed income markets will maintain their elevated volatility. Overall this bodes well for the private market segment of a portfolio if it exists.