Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn Devitt

Markets Happy Hour Podcast March 12, 2026 - Oil Spill

In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we start "happy hour" early on Thursday morning, which is an essential disclosure - given the pace of newsflow affecting market expectations and trends in real time. We kick off with a discussion of the oil price shocks, and how oil has now for some months been the marginal responder to geopolitical news. We illustrate how much it moved in one day alone in response to a (later rebutted) assertion that some oil tankers were being escorted through the Straits of Hormuz.Inflation was - prior to the current oil shock - trending downwards and had been subdued both in terms of pressure from labour and from services, although there were pockets of concern that the next rate move - at least by the ECB - would be upwards following their current pause. Interest rate expectations have seen a significant U turn in recent days - suggesting that expectations around the effect of the current conflict would not be transitory. This has manifested as spikes in government bond yields - particularly the 2 year GILT and the US 10 Year Treasury. This is an interesting development as it begs that question as to whether these - supposedly - risk free assets are behaving like safety assets. It would seem not, perhaps it is because the overhang of currency debasement, rising fiscal deficits (only rising more with defence and war expenditure) and general skittishness that is preventing investors from fleeing to government bonds. Gold similarly has not been seeing many inflows - falling 2% over the last few weeks - since the outbreak of the conflict. Again, this could be due to unique factors driving technical levels in gold over recent weeks. In equity markets there has been volatility but no clear move down - indicating the level of assets on the sidelines that will be risk seeking as they seek to deploy cash. Certain markets such as Korea were particularly exposed to oil price movements, as we saw last weeks market movement there. Moving then to private markets, the current newsflow is certainly a distraction from the spotlight being shone on private credit and private equity. The nagging concerns persist however, with a concern around contagion from SAAS companies and their travails, a general lack of due diligence (MFS in the UK) and crowding in the general space. Our final comment is regarding AI and the current wave of interrogation that is facing that segment, which is around governance. The spat between the Department of War and Anthropic underscored the moral pivot points that will define the AI rollout and now that companies themselves are concerned about guardrails of their own systems, is an indication that reviews will be forthcoming.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast March 5, 2026 - LIVE in New York City

We were delighted to be back in NYC for our second live podcast - joined by 25+ year veteran Jai Jacob. Jai overseas multi-asset and equity strategies and has built platforms that translate data science into practical portfolio decision. He speaks on modernization, customization and disciplined investment process in evolving markets. This special live podcast digs deeply into AI and investing, and Jai strips the discipline of investment back to 8 verbs e- Observe, Believe, Categorize, Qualify, Analyze, Rank, Weight and Commit.We go through each one and assess the different that AI will make, and explore areas where it might be less effective - such as in fiduciary oversight (can AI be a board member for example) and in creativity. We also tackle the problem of nurturing and training human capital and what that means for th next layer of ingenuity and resilience.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast March 5, 2026 - Spring has Sprung with Special Guest Ryan Boothroyd

In today’s Markets Happy Hour Podcast we discuss the unfolding geopolitical events that are impacting markets and are joined by special guest Ryan Boothroyd. Ryan is Head of External Manager Research at Border to Coast Pensions Partnership a pool of over £100bn which manages the assets of 18 UK local government pension funds. He is responsible for the management of over £20bn of funds across equities and credit. Our conversation starts with the recent jumps in inflation, which are bucking a trend of steadily declining inflation that we have seen in recent months. Just as headline UK inflation seemed to be showing it was coming closer to 3% we have seen a spike in food price inflation to 4.3%, while European inflration rose to 1.9%, up from 1.7%. These inflation pressures are likely to be more intense due to rising fuel prices, and Ryan discusses the more general pattern that we are seeing in inflation more generally. While some headlines describe this as a “phony inflation scare” due to the immediate circumstances, it is certainly true that they are likely to increase the strain on the consumer, which is already showing some stress.Moving to equity markets, we discussed the immediate fallout from the war in Iran – a fall in gold, US Treasuries and emerging markets – particularly the Kospi, which is particularly exposed to imported oil, while the USD and US assets were broadly winners, as well as oil of course. We look back at some of the experience from recent history in which market downturns had been more pronounced than the current drawdown, but ask whether this is because the current geopolitical shock had the clear shock absorber of the boon in AI and tech stocks to support it – as indeed it has propped up most of the economy and markets for months.Moving to AI and the current state of investor thinking we reveal the divergence of outcomes that investors are currently grappling with and ask whether it is possibly to modify one’s exposure in reaction to this. We conclude with a discussion of private credit and the current negative tailwinds there.Tune in to our second podcast of the day later when we hold a LIVE discussion in NYC with Jai Jacob, a 25+ year veteran and have a particular focus on AI and investing.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast February 27, 2026 - More Flurries

In this week's Markets Happy Hour we discuss the long winter that has descended on the East Coast of the US and the ongoing chill and flurries of anxiety and activity that we are experiencing in markets. We suggest with the new injection of volatility in the aftermath of the US Supreme Court striking down the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) are in at 6:3 decision. This uncertainty is continuing to unsettle markets which are already coping with the rupture that AI is continuing to create in market expectations.This week was a particularly busy one for this kind of existential thinking, between the continuing fallout from the SAAS-apocalypse as well as well as more contagion. Much of this was due to the 5000-word viral Citrini research piece, has started to cascade through financial services and beyond. We parse this, as well as two other pieces of critical newflow – the standoff between Anthropic and Pentagon with respect to the use of its models in citizen surveillance as well as autonomous weapons, and just overnight the announce of Block cutting 40% of its workforce as it pivots to a more lean business model. Block’s announcement was met by a surge in the stock price. So will it be a sign of things to come?Nvidia’s earnings were blowout, but not that well-received given the already fraught mood in markets. Moving then to private credit we note the “winter” that has descended on sentiment there, which awkwardly is coinciding with a full throttle advance by that segment into the burgeoning private wealth (and retirement savings) business. Clearly a time to be highly selective. Finally the recent fallout for Bitcoin seems to have levelled out somewhat and we analyze this hints at a “floor” or simply a broadening of the depth. Don't forget to tune in next week to our live event in NYC - we will be featuring multi-asset specialist Jai Jacob for a special discussion on AI. Details here.https://www.eventbrite.com/e/1983274102228?aff=oddtdtcreator

AI CapEx: Boom, Bust, or Groupthink?

Full episode: INUNDATED linked belowhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWxIlGvENsQ&t=101s

Inflation: Real Progress or Canary in the Coal Mine?

Full Episode: INUNDATED linked belowhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWxIlGvENsQ&t=10s

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - February 19, 2026 - Inundated

In this week’s Markets Happy Hour Podcast we deal with the inundation – both literal and metaphorical that markets and populations are contending with this week – whether the flooding of the zone with newsflow and the actual inundation with rain and snow and parts of Europe. We kick off with apparent evidence that inflation continues to ease – particularly in the case of the service component which is now lower.This could, of course be a further indication of the waning power of labor and indicate the source of some of the consumer discontent we highlighted last week - all in all though, inflation is subdued in major developed markets, and in the UK in particular, there was a surprise drop to 3%, leading to heightened expectations of a near-term rate cut by the Bank of England.Returning to the “calm” in fixed income discussed last week, we again refer to the diminished volatility in fixed income markets, as well as the record tight investment grade spreads, which are back to levels not seen since before the 2008 crisis. Equity markets continue to be a model of “rotation” in action, as well as shifting investor sentiment away from lavish AI expenditure. The rotations that we discussed before are in evidence still - growth to value, Mag 7 to the other 493 stocks, and from US stocks to Asian and European markets. AI expenditure is continuing to get scrutiny - and the Apple example is held up as an outlier, whereby the company has preferred to outsource its solutions to other companies while waiting on the sidelines when it comes to its own spend.We end with a discussion of geopolitics, and ask whether the same inundation that we discussed at the beginning has led to investors capacity to understand and digest developments, particularly those as severe as the building tensions between the US and Iran. We do a brief thought experiment on what this could mean for markets were it to intensify . . clearly the oil price would be affected, but it might rattle anotherwise jittery set of investors.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast February 12, 2026 - Where is the Love?

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we ask where is the love? As Valentine's Day approaches, it seems that consumers, and investors themselves are not displaying a whole lot of love for the AI and tech stocks of which they had been quite enamored not long ago. There is, similarly, a bit of a shift away not only from them but also the US as a market, as other markets such as Japan and Europe start to show their relative strengths.In the discussion of inflation we reflect on soaring food prices and how – in the US at least – this has started to affect footfall and spend at restaurants such as McDonalds and Burger King. There has been a shift in the spending from restaurants towards grocery stores. We move from discussing the K shaped economy to a new concept that Alex introduces – the W shaped economy, in which there are two key segments – those that shop at Wholefoods and those who shop at Walmart, each of whom are struggling in their separate ways. This vibe check notes the recession in consumer confidence and the fact that the labor market is no longer putting as much pressure on inflation.Interest rate expectations have moderated again, as markets have digested the announcement of the next Fed Chairman, while fixed income volatility remains very low relative to its history.Moving to equity markets, the calling cries of markets are of a US tech detox and the continuing rotation into European tech, Japanese equities value from growth and sectors such as infrastructure and financials. This is all occurring against a backdrop of “sell now, see later” whereby AI automation threats are cascading through different sectors – first SAAS and now wealth management as new intelligent tools are released at a fast pace.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast February 5, 2026 - Moltbook and Melt-downs

In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we digest another busy week of market movements, economic data, momentum shifts and shifting expectations. We start with the surprisingly low (and under control) inflation data from Europe, where Eurozone inflation came in at 1.7%. This has led to the ECB maintaining rates on hold and Christine Lagarde suggesting that the Eurozone is in a “good place” (at least with respect to inflation), and similarly the Bank of England kept its rates on hold at 3.75% although did hint at a further cut later in the year (its inflation had surprised on the upside in December at 3.4%). Turning to the economy vibe checks, it is interesting to see that there remains a divergence between customer's actual experience (trending downwards) and expectations (low and remaining low), as actually expectations have never really been too elevated, despite the foaming at the mouth that has occurred by onlookers of the "red hot" economy. Employment numbers have been weaker than expected, while expectations are weaker still, so there is definitely a cloud hanging over the K shaped economy, especially as the oil price gets higher on geopolitical concerns, which could drive pump prices.All eyes remain on the putative Chair of the Fed, Kevin Warsh, and there has been some vacillation around his expected positioning. It is clear he is in favor of a smaller Fed, with a shrunken balance sheet, but his positioning around inflation is less clear. Is he a hawk and mindful of inflation - or does he not consider it important - as calculated by economists anyway. The answer to this question could dictate his positioning around rate cuts and for now, he is a bit of a challenging study. The initial expectation that he would be hawkish (another Volcker?) sent the dollar higher and other assets into somewhat of a tailspin this week. Gold and silver were particularly hard hit, with both falling precipitously, silver more than gold. This may have been due to technical factors such as silver being essentially thinly traded, but either way it was spectacularly bad timing for an asset class that had been recently driven upward by a large degree of retail buying. Bitcoin had an even worst trajectory - and has now fallen back to its pre-election levels, below $70,000 as we write. There is no particular fundamental reason for this, although it is clearly a risk-off trade, and it could be an indication of the risk aversion coursing through tech exposures currently.Finally turning to tech stocks, the focus on capex after the Alphabet earnings call indicates that investors are increasingly scrutinizing capex to see if the expenditure will be justified. There is more skepticism regarding tech stocks broadly, particularly after the staggering revelations about Moltbook, a social network for AI agents. This perhaps sent a chill - a reminder that the pace of advancement in AI has been rapid, and perhaps that it has got ahead of our ability to control it. More skepticism ensued. The fallout from this skepticism was a rise in rotations - from growth to value (value has outperformed growth for the last three months, from tech stocks into smaller and mid-cap stocks and out of the US into non-US equities. For clients with a broadbased portfolios this will be rewarding.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast January 30, 2026 - YoYos and YOLO

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we cover the post-Davos week, which, as is now typical has been filled with newsflow, most recently chatter regarding the pending appointment of the next Fed Chair. As we go to print it seems likely to be Kevin Warsh - a current Fed Governor, one of the youngest, and considered to be an "orthodox" pick, given his existing reputation as a Fed Governor and expectation that he will not be necessarily a channel for political preferences. The recent Fed decision to leave rates flat was difficult to parse - as the message was essentially more of the same. There is clearly a mixed message in terms of jobs, the perception of jobs being plentiful and being hard to find are now roughly the same – so clearly no big gap as there was post Covid.The employees in tech industries are flat to trending lower despite revenues and capacities soaring – this points to productivity gains and will continue to matter for jobs. Other equity market sectors have diverged, there are some indications of saturation points being met in certain areas of tech – there is a fall and stabilization of TikTok users, while Apple (which has had a mixed AI launch) has had a set of 8 consecutive weekly declines. Other sectors such as “gridTech” – a new sector coined by Bloomberg – which contains a basket of companies exposed to the pick-up in investment in the electricity grid. It is notable that this, as well as the utilities index more broadly have not generally performed as well as other equity sectors. This latency is interesting – as clearly the one broadly accepted truth is that more electricity will be needed going forward and that this will have to be met from all sources, including solar, which has accounted for 61% of the increase in electricity demand in the US.The performance in precious metals has continued to define the risk off appetite from time to time – with gold moving to a record $5,500 per oz, and US markets considerably weaker compared to the gold. There is some indication that Chinese retail holders of gold have peaked considerably pointing to the potential for some speculative interest there and the potential for more volatility. Silver, similarly, has seen a stark ascent, as well as sharp intra-day volatility just in the past week.The podcast ends with a comment on the use of precious metals in a portfolio and the role that they play.