Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn Devitt

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - August 8, 2025, Resilience and retreat

In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we reflect on 6 days spent in Chile, and the insights from a conversation with Jose Manuel Silva of LarrainVial Asset Management, who shared details of how Chile is responding to the current tariff environment. It has been a week of much news flow - from the labor statistics surprise at the end of last week, which led to a flurry activity including the firing of the Head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which spooked markets briefly - raising the question as to what data can be trusted from any government agency. The only way for interest rates seems to be down, now, particularly with a new Fed governor who is a President Trump nominee, and the employment numbers which seems to present incontrovertible evidence that the market is perhaps not as strong as had been previously thought. The Bank of England itself dropped rates to 4% - but only after two votes, as they appeared to be conflicted due to ongoing stubborn inflation. Equity markets were resilient, reaching new highs in the US, although concentration continued to mount, and we present some charts showing the increased beta in these names. As a handful of stocks become the market, it is only to be expected that their beta will increase, but this then makes it increasingly more difficult for active managers to outperform - as it is difficult to charge fees for holding a few top names, and particularly to gain an edge with respect to them.We do ask what this stunning rise in markets since liberation day (27% for the S&P and 38% for NASDAQ) means for even riskier sectors such as Meme stocks, AI levered names and unprofitable tech, and these sectors have done even better - indicating an appetite for risk that is clearly accelerating. This may explain the pent up demand for equities even when a period of weakness is evident. Moving then to emerging markets we reflect on the growing gulf between US holders of non-US assets and non-US holders of US assets - clearly the latter group is larger as US markets outperform, and we ask whether this is likely to ever reverse? At current levels of power asymmetry it seems unlikely - particularly as trade deal chips continue to fall in the US's favor. We then reflect on some green shoots around EM and ask what it means for Chile in particular.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast July 31, 2025 - A Twist in the Tale

In today's Markets Happy Hour podcast we are recording in the middle of a flurry of trade news flow on the eve of the August 1 tariff deadline. We know, as we record, that the deadline has been extended by 90 days with respect to Mexico and much uncertainty is still in place. However the "twist" in the tale or the "plot twist" of the title refers to the subtle but perceptible change in how the US is being regarded in these trade negotiations as it increasingly flexes its muscle and grows more confident, seemingly leaving its counterparties with little morale. We discuss in particular the "lose, lose, lose, lose" case of Europe.Moving to other matters we discuss the strong Q2 GDP growth figure in the US, and how this lowers the odds of an imminent rate cut, and dissect an earnings season that has been very bi-polar. With old economy stocks on the one hand struggling to maintain margins and cope with even early tariff pressure, tech companies are continuously beating expectations and enjoying an uplift in their share price accordingly. We await the US jobs figure tomorrow to receive more granular detail on the state of the US economy and while AI hype continues to rage, we may well see some of the collateral damage that that causes. The Markets Happy Hour Podcast is a weekly check-in on market conditions and what it means for investment portfolios. Aoifinn Devitt is an advisor to family offices and institutions around investing for a richer future. She believes that understanding the market context in which we operate is a key part of navigating that future with confidence and agency.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - July 24, 2025 - Tariffs, Transmission and Tall Tales - w/Jon Chesshire

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we tackle the mid-summer silly season in which an extraordinary number of "tall tales" and distractions seem to be flooding the zone. Our special guest this week is Jon Chesshire, Managing Principal of Sindia Capital, who is returning for his second appearance on the podcast. One persistent theme is tariffs though, and in analyzing their impact on the economy we are increasingly focused on the new economy/old economy impact, which is diverging sharply. As old economy stocks are wrestling with low margins, low pricing power and heavy exposure to tariff-impacted imports, new economy stocks such as tech stocks and semi-conductor manufacturers enjoy higher margins and seem to be relatively unaffected. This latter group drives the stock market at present, which could be why the stock market is being so stubbornly resilient.We touch on inflation in Europe (falling) as well as interest rates - now on hold everywhere, and re-examine why EM are starting to close the gap with DM. Finally we have some fun with meme stocks of the current era, and ask why they might be surging again. Hint: It has to do with the retail investor.The Markets Happy Hour Podcast is a weekly check-in on market conditions and what it means for investment portfolios. Aoifinn Devitt is an advisor to family offices and institutions around investing for a richer future. She believes that understanding the market context in which we operate is a key part of navigating that future with confidence and agency.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - With Special Guest Euan Munro - July 17, 2025; The Waiting Game

In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we are delighted to be joined by Euan Munro, former CEO of Newton Asset Management and a well-known commentator on market conditions and multi-asset investing. We start by reflecting on the slightly higher than expected inflation numbers in the US, ask "Will he stay or will he go?" with respect to the Fed Chairman, and analyze how markets have been mulling over this essential question - as expressed by the 30 year bond yield, the S&P and the US dollar.The trade narrative is continuing to evolve as even the 10% tariff has yielded meaningful receipts so far and little impact has been seen on inflation. However Euan argues that it remains far too early to say how tariffs will ultimately affect inflation. Looking around the world we look at diverging interest rate shapes and sizes (Table Mountain v. the Matterhorn), equity market performance and a strange convergence that continues between the worlds of EM and DM debt. We conclude by comparing the behavior of gold and Bitcoin and asking whether anything is in fact doing the job we expect of it, and whether we are under-appreciating income in particular - neither of which Gold or Bitcoin generate. The Markets Happy Hour Podcast is a weekly check-in on market conditions and what it means for investment portfolios. Aoifinn Devitt is an advisor to family offices and institutions around investing for a richer future. She believes that understanding the market context in which we operate is a key part of navigating that future with confidence and agency.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - July 10, 2025 - Copper Cooks and Coffee Boils

In today's slightly more compressed markets happy hour podcast it is all about tariffs again, and not only are tariffs (whether on copper imports or Brazil - both at 50%) at records again, but US policy is starting to change the course of international politics and not just foreign relations - for this, see Brazil.Other news was a little lighter as the US press gave considerable coverage to the tragic flooding in central Texas. There has been little movement in the rate of inflation, although expectations remain more muted then previously and this is all aligning with a growing appetite for risk, more money in money market funds on the side lines and what CNN deems (according to its fear and greed indicator) a climate that is into the zone of "Extreme Greed".Next week we can analyze in more detail what exactly fear and greed are motivated by in markets, but for now, we look at some of the underlying components of that greed - soaring momentum, increased stock price breadth and a compressing high yield bond spread, all indicators of stronger risk appetite. Bitcoin reflects this too, having itself hit a high of $112,000. The Markets Happy Hour Podcast is a weekly check-in on market conditions and what it means for investment portfolios. Aoifinn Devitt is an advisor to family offices and institutions around investing for a richer future. She believes that understanding the market context in which we operate is a key part of navigating that future with confidence and agency.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - July 4, 2025 - Reflections on Independence Day with special guest

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we are joined by frequent macro commentator Stephen Isaacs, who frequently appears on Bloomberg and other channels. He is an experienced Asian investor and former trader. He asks the question for the ages: Is US exceptionalism over or simply over-priced? We cycle through our usual themes of inflation, economic indicators, interest rates, equity markets (and the sectors that are in focus) as well as geo-politics and the US dollar. We end with a discussion of whether politics and policy are "broken" as some commentators have suggested and ask if this can be extended to the usual economic heuristics or rules of thumb.Stephen explains why he is optimistic about the US economy for the second half of the year, the likely compounding effect of the "wealth effect", as well as the removal of tariff uncertainty and a likely tail wind of lower rates. We ask about some of the counter-indicators, such as rising budget deficit, a weaker dollar and the advance of AI, but none of these seems meaningful enough to derail the momentum of economic growth. The Markets Happy Hour Podcast is a weekly check-in on market conditions and what it means for investment portfolios. Aoifinn Devitt is an advisor to family offices and institutions around investing for a richer future. She believes that understanding the market context in which we operate is a key part of navigating that future with confidence and agency.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - June 27, 2025 - The Calm after the Storm

Today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast comes to you from France, where I am attending my 25th year business school reunion. It would be fascinating to reflect on where the world economy was 25 year ago - I'll do that next week. This week reflects on the fascinating chapter now being written after the storm (or after this storm), in which markets are rallying once more to all time highs, the dollar is at a 44 month low and bonds seem to be presenting a mixed bag to investors.What we know now is that markets are not reacting to geopolitical risk as they once did - but then again neither is oil. The markets were far more focused on the rhetoric of the Fed Governor Michelle Bowman and her desire to take the foot off the pedal of financial sector regulation, and financials rallied along with tech. The equity market movement is still not broad-based however, and while tariffs are off the table (and off the headlines so far), the trade uncertainty cannot be erased in a flash. We are reminded that staying invested has been the trade of the year, and a good question for the next few weeks is what would it take now to lead the Fed to cut rates with markets at these levels. The Markets Happy Hour Podcast is a weekly check-in on market conditions and what it means for investment portfolios. Aoifinn Devitt is an advisor to family offices and institutions around investing for a richer future. She believes that understanding the market context in which we operate is a key part of navigating that future with confidence and agency.

Special Bonus Markets Happy Hour Podcast - June 25, 2025 - The Situation in the Middle East

In this special bonus podcast we bring you a timely discussion with a Middle East strategist and expert reporting on the situation in the region, as of today, June 25, when a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran continues to hold and narratives shift as to the effect of the US bombing on Iran nuclear's ambitions - whether obliteration or a set-back had been achieved.Kawa Hassan is a Fellow at The Stimson Center in Brussels, where he is a nonresident fellow at its Middle East and North Africa program, as well as an international consultant with Shrova Strategies. He has over 20 years of experience in designing and leading Track 2/Track 1.5 diplomacy, policy research, development & humanitarian programs. His passions include conflict prevention, resolution, and mediation, Middle East and North Africa, EU, NATO, policy research and development of practical, policy recommendations. He is a regular guest on international media outlets including FT, Washington Post, BBC, WSJ, NYT, VOA, El Pais, Euronews, Al Hadath, CGTN, Al Jazeera, etc.We look at the aspects of the regional conflict that may be being overlooked and at the prospects for the ceasefire to hold or for regime change to take place. In assessing the incentives for various outcomes around the region, Kawa lists the chaos that would ensue and the regional ramifications should regime change take place, and furthermore gives a realistic assessment of what the best case scenario can be from here. All views expressed are those of the guest and host and should not be attributed to their organizations.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast June 19, 2025 - The Heat is On - With Special Guest Robert Morier

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast, we note how, as we approach mid-summer, the Heat is on, both literally, and at a geopolitical level. Our special guest this week is Robert Morier, a Professor at Drexel University, with a particular focus on venture and entrepreneurship, as well as the host of the Dakota Live podcast, advisor and surf life guard. His insights the job market for graduates, the use of AI among his student cohort and capital allocation inside and outside the US provide useful context to our broader market observations. This week we note how uncertainty continues to prevail, with the US Fed at their latest meeting essentially admitting that they were still uncertain about the direction of markets. The USD continues to weaken despite rates being held steady, and more central banks are now cutting rates than raising or keeping on hold. Equity markets have been reasonably calm despite the military action between Israel and Iran, and AI continue to dominate market headlines as tech titans engage in an arms race to add to their expertise, while lobbying regulators to give them a 10 year grace period. The Markets Happy Hour Podcast is a weekly check-in on market conditions and what it means for investment portfolios. Aoifinn Devitt is an advisor to family offices and institutions around investing for a richer future. She believes that understanding the market context in which we operate is a key part of navigating that future with confidence and agency.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast June 13, 2025 - A Mid-Summer Reprieve - But Not for the US dollar

In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we look at the state of affairs in markets as we approach mid-summer and marvel at the fact that all assets seem relatively subdued in terms of activity - with the exception of the US dollar.US inflation has been modest (2.4%), which is leading to a siren call for more rate cuts, although the US Fed has still resisted pressure - despite the fact that other central banks around the world are clearly on a downward trajectory with their monetary policy.Equity markets are now above where they were at the date of President Trump's inauguration, although non-US markets have outperformed, and this reflects the slow erosion of US exceptionalism. This is most acutely felt - however, in the case of the US dollar, which is now at a three year low, and essentially has turned some fund managers into currency managers. Meanwhile geopolitics continues to be vexed and thorny, which is having some impact on the oil price. The Markets Happy Hour Podcast is a weekly check-in on market conditions and what it means for investment portfolios. Aoifinn Devitt is an advisor to family offices and institutions around investing for a richer future. She believes that understanding the market context in which we operate is a key part of navigating that future with confidence and agency.