Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn Devitt

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - October 9, 2025 - Alarms or False Alarms?

In this week’s Markets Happy Hour Podcast we discuss alarm bells - where we see them, whether we are finding them where none exist and what we can do about it, if anything. We are joined by former CIO of Royal Mail, Ian McKnight. A few weeks ago, in a podcast with John Normand of Australian Super, we asked if the US economy was actually stronger than we thought, in that US GDP growth figures looked to be revised upwards and the consumer as well as the stock market proved to be stubbornly resilient. Of course, the stock market does not equal the economy - we are reminded of that over and over again, but when the stock markets rises to fresh highs (over 29 in the S&P alone in 2025 year to date) and Main Street increasingly participates, the two do start to march in step (at least at times).This week we discuss how optimism around the US economy is presenting strangely - on the one hand inflation expectations are subdued - as expressed by US breakevens and swap rates, which are hovering below 3%, so well out of the danger zone and on the other hand the strong equity markets are being supported by strong corporate cash flow and corporate margins - which presuppose pricing power and ongoing inflation.Given Ian's location in the UK we do a bit of deep dive into the current malaise in the UK around low growth, high debt to GDP and high inflation and look at some of the dependencies that lead to that. We look at potential cracks in the bond market, ask whether the rise in demand of gold is actually an alarm signal, or just a sign of all of the return seeking capital out there. Finally, given the breaking news today on the Israel/Hamas peace deal we ask what this may mean for geopolitics and the market impact beside the massive human relief.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - LIVE from San Francisco October 3, 2025

In this podcast we feature snippets from our live conversation in San Francisco where we were joined by guests from across the venture capital, programming and fund management spectrum. Over coffee and donuts we debated:Whether we feel a disconnect between the economic backdrop and the current equity market strength?Whether there is a bubble in AI?What inflation feels like on the ground?It was a lively discussion with a range of cross-generational insights around affordability, the job market and AI adoption. I hope you enjoy it.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast October 2, 2025: Memes and Milestones

In today’s Markets Happy Hour podcast we focus on Memes and Milestones, in a week that has been filled with news of a government shutdown in the US, landmark deals and valuations and market highs. The US government shutdown now is reaching its 3rd day, and has been punctuated with odd bursts of meme-ing involving Sombreros and Mariachi bands as partisan shots across the bough continue. This barely called a ripple in the equity markets though, which continued to grind higher. This is in line with historical equity market resilience in the case of shutdowns, and as the chart below shows markets have generally been resilient and agnostic during these periods. With the third quarter now in the books, the S&P has touched its 29th high of the year, while the DOW has closed at a record high for the 9th time. With the rising tide of resilience lifting all boats, even the often-neglected Small Cap index – Russell 2000, has participated in the positive momentum. As noted last week, the technical factors have been stacking up as supportive of the current market strength – notable the excess of $7 trillion in Money Market Funds and the sliding return on these funds as rates come down.Bond markets barely took a breath from the September rate cut, and immediately started to discount in the next one, aided by a continuing slow down in jobs numbers – as confirmed by private sector ADP data that saw the US lose 32,000 jobs in September. That sent bond prices higher – again nonplussed by the shutdown shenanigans or the ongoing attempts to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook, which have now reached the supreme court. The bond market is clearly looking forward to what we deemed last week the “twilight” of Chairman Powell’s tenure and excited about the boost seems to be incoming. Large numbers continue to dominate headlines, as markets ruminate on the investment – noted last week – by Nvidia in OpenAI ($100 bn), while OpenAI itself wrapped up a $6.5 bn share sale mainly to employees that valued it at $500 bn. Berkshire Hathaway made a $10 bn purchase of OxyChem, the first under the stewardship of the CEO elect Greg Abel, while Electronic Arts was taken private in the largest ever US buyout deal ($50 bn) by a consortium of buyers including Silver Lake and the Saudi Arabian fund PIF as well as Affinity Partners controlled by Jared Kushner. The spend on compute that seemingly insatiable demands for AI require are driving the obvious question as to whether the current pace of AI spending can be sustained, as well as concern around the interconnectedness of the various large players. Meanwhile other geopolitical rumblings occur – the US extension of a helpline to beleaguered Argentina was once more lacking in detail, which caused further erosion of asset values there, while taking stock of tariffs revealed that the OECD expected tariffs to hit the US “hard” in 2026, while the monthly duties collected neared $30 bn, a stark rise from recent history.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - September 25, 2025: Bottlenecks, Bailouts and Breakthroughs

In today’s Markets Happy Hour Podcast, we dissect a busy week of news flow including a show down at the UN, growing tensions on the geopolitical front, growing indicators of economic strength and the continuation of the AI big-spending era. We are delighted to be joined by John Normand - Head of Investment Strategy for Australian Super. John's long history in investment strategy and asset allocation gives him a unique way of constructing a narrative with a smooth story arc. We start our discussion by asking whether the economy in the US is actually better than we think - citing the upward revision in GDP to 3.8% for the second quarter, the fact that the weak employment numbers may have been distorted by an immigration clampdown leading to a worker shortage, and other signs that tariff revenue will boost the US coffers with little impact on inflation. These indicators - if true - would point to a slower rate lowering cycle than previously estimated. We move then to discuss equity market breadth, and how it is improving, which John relates to this point in the growth cycle. We contrast this with some of the signs from fixed income markets, which seem to suggest that we are late cycle (tight spreads). We end with a discussion of the portfolio implications of the current rotations, and casts our minds forward to an asset class mix with a backdrop of lower rates. This would be positive for infrastructure and other asset classes such as private equity. John discusses his view that private equity and public equity valuations will start to converge in 1-2 years, aided by lower rates on the one hand and a dampening of the current AI euphoria driving public equity markets on the other. This is a fascinating and timely discussion which contains much food for thought.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - September 18, 2025 - A Stitch in Time

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we ask if the Fed has, through taking a "risk based" and "meeting by meeting" approach and making its first cut all year (25 bps) taken a "stitch in time" to avert economic disaster. Inflation remains stubbornly high, and it seems that the Fed is now switching to emphasize the employment side of its dual mandate. Inflation around the world is not much better, with a rolling 3.8% in the UK and an anemic rate of growth that clearly equates to a loose stagflation, while in Europe the rate of inflation is much lower - at 0.8% in France and an average of 2.1% for the whole Eurozone.It has been another "noisy" week, with governments from the UK to France struggling to contain expenses and spending, the US making all kinds of overtures into private companies (e.g. TikTok, Intel (deal with Nvidia)) and an equity market that 58% of fund managers surveyed by Bank of America consider to be overvalued. We end with a look at so called Tail Risks that managers in the survey considered and how their probability has moved over the last quarter. It is interesting that a global Trade War has fallen behind a second wave of inflation as the greatest risk tail risk, and we analyze whether these risks are "real".

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - September 11, 2025: Show and Tell

In today’s Markets Happy Hour podcast we do some show and tell as we have a guest, Pablo Castro, who is an economic commentator and podcast host from Argentina, and we examine the recent election performance down there and compare the experience they have had to that of developed markets.We start by analyzing the recent inflation numbers from the US and look at the converging soft indicators, whereby consumers are starting to expect a lower rate of inflation going forward. This may now give permission to the Fed to reduce rates at its upcoming meeting next week and we cite the ECB’s recent decision to hold as well as the recent job market revisions, which are likely to be a deciding factor.While equity markets and Gold reach new highs, geopolitics seems to have taken a turn for the unexpected, while domestic politics continues to crowd the airwaves and further flood the zone.We stay on geopolitics to conclude by reflecting on the recent setback for the Argentinian president and ask what this means for his reforms as well as the region’s growth

Markets Happy Hour Podcast September 5, 2025 - Labor Day Reflections

In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast Labor is on our mind - as this was recorded just before the disappointing labor statistics were released in the US, showing essentially a summer slowdown and the addition of only 22,000 jobs. All eyes were on these figures as they are likely to serve as a permission slip for an interest rate cut later in the month, and perhaps give a more visceral read on an economy that continues to fire a set of mixed signals. Inflation remains top of mind, if not top of the range, and reminders such as the negative surprise from the UK (3.8%) abound that complacency would be ill-advised at this juncture. A few weeks ago, in the Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Dr. David Kelly of J P Morgan we described the job market as a "low hiring/low firing equilibrium" and that seems to be the case. The bond market has been "busy" also sending a series of mixed signals - from the tightness of high yield bond spreads, suggesting not only a confidence in the credit worthiness of most issuers, but also throwing open the question as to where the more shaky issuers have gone? To the private credit market maybe? The other dynamic in bond markets is the low level of demand at the long end of the government bond curve - a global phenomenon indicating lack of trust and confidence in the fiscal positioning of at least four "problem children" - the US, the UK, France and Japan, but in reality few countries have been spared. Staying on the bond market, while default rates seem to be a non-issue we do note that they are higher than average, and have remained so for longer than average. This slow burn higher than average default rate - still nowhere close to the 2008 levels - is affecting most sectors with the exception of energy and power, which again hints at the strain in segments of the economy not lucky enough to be levered to the fortunes of AI. Equity markets are facing a traditionally challenging month - September - which is typically turbulent both for long term government debt as well as equities. Another sign of this is the boost to gold, which Goldman Sachs expects could jump to $5,000 an oz if Fed independence erodes, and silver as well as gold have seen their values double in three years. On the theme of currency debasement, the Trump administration's favorable positioning has given a boost to stablecoins and now one issuer (Tether) has suggested it might look to gold, as well as the USD to be its backstop. We finish with a dose of pondering. Is trust now at a premium, such that lack of trust - whether in the independence of institutions such as central banks, the integrity of public officials (c.f. Angela Rayner and Lisa Cook), the behavior of a CEO (cf. Nestle) or in the financial soundness of a fiscal poilicy - could derail things by sparking uncertainty? It does seem like trust has been a casualty of recent political turmoil, and this may well be driving investors into shorter term positioning (at least with respect to bonds) and "safer" sectors (such as large cap tech) when it comes to equities. © 2025 Advisory services offered by Moneta Group Investment Advisors, LLC, (“MGIA”) an investment adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). MGIA is a wholly owned subsidiary of Moneta Group, LLC. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply a certain level of skill or training. The information contained herein is for informational purposes only, is not intended to be comprehensive or exclusive, and is based on materials deemed reliable, but the accuracy of which has not been verified.Trademarks and copyrights of materials referenced herein are the property of their respective owners. Index returns reflect total return, assuming reinvestment of dividends and interest. The returns do not reflect the effect of taxes and/or fees that an investor would incur. Examples contained herein are for illustrative purposes only based on generic assumptions. Given the dynamic nature of the subject matter and the environment in which this communication was written, the information contained herein is subject to change. This is not an offer to sell or buy securities, nor does it represent any specific recommendation. You should consult with an appropriately credentialed professional before making any financial, investment, tax or legal decision. An index is an unmanaged portfolio of specified securities and does not reflect any initial or ongoing expenses nor can it be invested in directly. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. All investments are subject to a risk of loss. Diversification and strategic asset allocation do not assure profit or protect against loss in declining markets. These materials do not take into consideration your personal circumstances, financial or otherwise.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - August 28, 2025 - with Special Guest Torsten Slok

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast - entitled Fireworks and Firings - we kick off the holiday weekend in the US with an engaging discussion with Torsten Slok, Chief Economist of Apollo Group.We start with a "vibe check" on the US economy - citing the consensus expectations for growth (falling but positive at around 1%) and inflation (stable and tending towards rising north of the magic 2% target - with consensus in the 3% range). This combination would generally point more towards a stagflationary outcome than a buoyant one, and it does beg the question as to how much wiggle room that the Fed has when it comes to interest rates.We move then to fixed income markets and global phenomenon of rising long yields, and ask what is the common factor at play. While persistent inflation may be one reason, there may also be nagging doubts around the fiscal conditions at work. Equity markets too are seeing a bifurcation - around tech and everything else, and the concentration only heightens the need for investors to remain diversified. We end with a discussion of the demand for US assets and how that has recently rebounded, suggesting that non-US investors continue to crave US exposure and explaining a firming of the value of the dollar, which had previously had a weakening trajectory. We look to the portfolio implications of these cross currents - the importance of diversification, continuing to build in recession resilience into every portfolio and to not underestimate the power of private assets to provide diversification and ballast, as a complement (or even an alternative) to global diversification.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - August 21, 2025 - Hole in One?

In this week's short Markets Happy Hour Podcast, I round out a trip to South America by taking stock of the lessons from the "labs" on the ground here and what we can learn for Developed market economies wrestling with "more of the same". We start by citing the 3.8% inflation surprise in the UK, and the cold water that that poured on interest rate cut expectations, which, when coupled with a sell off in the 30 UK Gilts (they reached the highest level they have seen since 1998) suggests a squeeze from both sides - from within as the consumers struggle with elevated interest rates and high inflation, and from the outside as investors voice their disinterest in UK long dated debt.We turn then to the Jackson hole dilemmas, the multi-layered nature of the questions facing them - whether to retain a "flexible" approach to inflation, whether tariffs will have an effect, what to do when fiscal woes run the show (and low interest rates are desired to keep debt affordable). We touch on the AI wobbles that have sprung up this week, as well as the bond market messaging that all is well, particularly in high yield. It is a sea of contradictory indicators and it remains difficult to see a path to certainty. Finally, the weaker US dollar has led to a rise in popularity of the EM carry trade, which is yet another example of the surprising upside that EM can glean from some of the scuffles in Developed Markets.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast August 14, 2025 - with Special Guest Dr. David Kelly

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast - subtitled - Notes from a Laboratory - I am recording from Buenos Aires, which has been described to me as like a "laboratory" for economic policy. However, we are talking much more about the global economic outlook here. As usual we start with inflation, where David shares caution regarding the recent inflation numbers in the US where persistent services inflation may have been masked by falling oil prices. We ask if this is a long term trend, and he suggests that it is not, and that the upward pressure on inflation should limit the US Fed's actions around lowering rates. The other risk to inflation remains of tax rebates in next year's tax season, which could act like a further massive stimulus to spending. We discuss then the modern-day tortoise and hare scenario - whereby the low growth economy is akin to an aged tortoise plodding along - with still positive but not exuberant growth. The markets, on the other hand, tear ahead and resemble the energetic "hare". We ask whether these two should in fact appear like opposites in this way, and who in fact "wins the race" at the end of the day.Dwelling a little more on market dispersion, we discuss the growing concentration of markets, and whether the same rules of portfolio diversification still apply. David suggests that they do when it comes to global diversification, but we question whether the outlook for small and mid-cap stocks can be expected to be the same given the dynamics of large caps dominating, tariff exposure and pricing power. Finally we touch on the valuation of the US dollar, and ask it remains too high.