Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn Devitt

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - December 10 - LIVE from Dublin

The Markets Happy Hour Podcast has its roots in the virtual "water cooler" discussion about markets and implications held weekly at Moneta every Friday at 11 am. While we moved this to a "Tea with the CIO" and now a "Markets Happy Hour" we have rarely made it a live discussion with a live audience - until now!
Welcome to our first such discussion, live from a bustling Dublin City Centre and the Daly Room at Trinity College Dublin, Aoifinn's alma mater. Hot on the heels of an Investment Committee Meeting of the Trinity College Endowment, Aoifinn discusses:
The intense geopolitical developments of the past 5 days - including regime change in Syria, and what this means for the distribution of power in the region, and particularly the influence of Russia and Iran.  
The triumph that France experienced amid its political chaos - as world leaders attended the reopening of Notre Dame after a devastating fire.
Whether this is evidence that perhaps a counter-narrative to the "Europe is past its prime" argument should emerge. Other evidence of this is the pending need to spend up to 500 bn Euro on defence, as well as the post-Covid recovery trajectory actually being quite a normal one for the region - it being the US recovery that was an outlier.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - December 7 - tricks and treats in an Advent calendar

 On slide 8 and around the 11 minute mark I say Intel instead of Nvidia -It was Nvidia which reached $3.4 trillion in market cap rising by 816% since February 14, 2021, while Intel lost 59% of its market cap over the same period*
5 days in to our Advent Calendar and already December has provided lots of tricks and treats. 
We have seen more market highs in the US, and illustrate why America First just keeps going - more than ever.
Over the last decade, in price terms, the MSCI Europe has lagged the S&P 500 by an average compounded rate of 7.7% per year, while the MSCI Emerging Markets has lagged by 9.6% - this is meaningful underperformance that is naturally leading to big investor questions.
The strength of the US stock market is also evident in company fundamentals too - earnings and margins and pricing power are all more robust in US companies.
We look around the world to crises that have emerged in unexpected places - such as France and South Korea and look to other winners and losers.Will the incoming SEC commissioner mean "the end to a non-stop anti-crypto crusade?"
Find out why after coming for our coffee they may also be coming for our chocolate!

Markets Happy Hour - November 28 - Thanksgiving Edition

This Thanksgiving 2024 it seems appropriate to reflect on where we were this time last year and what we have to be thankful for:
Inflation - being in check and certainly in reverse since one year ago
Economic Growth - steady as she goes, although struggling in Europe Mortgage Rates - slowly tracking downwards although far from last year's 22 year high (USA)
The US election campaign is over - regardless of the outcome, the end of the campaigns in this Election Year like no other is something to behold
Soft landing - the fact that we have had one, should not be taken for granted
We then move to look at some of the positive developments around employment and house prices in the US, the negative headlines around France and Germany and how we are trying to figure out tariffs and they likely impact.
Incoming Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has an interesting take on tariffs- claiming they are not inflationary as they do not put more money into circulation but merely take it from one expenditure and towards another. This is an intriguing perspective, which may underestimate the ability of the consumer to borrow to plug a gap if higher prices stretch them more or of their ability to drain savings to do the same.
Overall looking at history is not as instructive as usual these days, given the fact that inverted yield curves, rate hiking cycles and soft landings did not play out as the history books might have suggested.
 
Happy Thanksgiving to all.
 
Market Banter, not investment advice.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast November 21, 2024

Topics discussed today:  
A subdued week in equity markets - but not in Bitcoin, which has flirted with the $100,000 level as a wide open era of deregulation beckons. 
Despite growing geopolitical tensions and nuclear saber rattling, markets remain sanguine and unrattled. 
The first dusting of snow has led to a chill in the air around future energy inflation and Natural Gas stocks are ticking upwards. 
Within equity markets stocks with high margins are dominating defensive value and dividend paying stocks, while companies are increasingly confident in passing price rises through to customers. 
We study the slow motion pension revolution in the UK and ask about their low level of equity investment relative to bonds and put that into global context. 
 Will turning that ship around be a step too far?

Markets Happy Hour Podcast November 14, 2024

A brief look back at themes and market movements so far this week:
Inflation - is it now tamed, or is the 3.3% core level too high for comfort? Why inflation is more complex than a single number - we look at the cumulative effect of inflation and how it is such an inherently subjective measure
The focus - on both sides of the Atlantic - on saving money whether through the to be created "Department of Government Efficiency" in the US or the "Office for Value for Money" - will this be inflationary or the opposite?
The new importance of truth - where we get our truths and why this will matter more and more as time goes on.

Markets Happy Hour with Aoifinn Devitt, November 14, 2024

A brief look back at themes and market movements so far this week:Inflation - is it now tamed, or is the 3.3% core level too high for comfort?Why inflation is more complex than a single number - we look at the cumulative effect of inflation and how it is such an inherently subjective measureThe focus - on both sides of the Atlantic - on saving money whether through the to be created "Department of Government Efficiency" in the US or the "Office for Value for Money" - will this be inflationary or the opposite?The new importance of truth - where we get our truths and why this will matter more and more as time goes on.