Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn Devitt

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - September 18, 2025 - A Stitch in Time

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we ask if the Fed has, through taking a "risk based" and "meeting by meeting" approach and making its first cut all year (25 bps) taken a "stitch in time" to avert economic disaster. Inflation remains stubbornly high, and it seems that the Fed is now switching to emphasize the employment side of its dual mandate. Inflation around the world is not much better, with a rolling 3.8% in the UK and an anemic rate of growth that clearly equates to a loose stagflation, while in Europe the rate of inflation is much lower - at 0.8% in France and an average of 2.1% for the whole Eurozone.It has been another "noisy" week, with governments from the UK to France struggling to contain expenses and spending, the US making all kinds of overtures into private companies (e.g. TikTok, Intel (deal with Nvidia)) and an equity market that 58% of fund managers surveyed by Bank of America consider to be overvalued. We end with a look at so called Tail Risks that managers in the survey considered and how their probability has moved over the last quarter. It is interesting that a global Trade War has fallen behind a second wave of inflation as the greatest risk tail risk, and we analyze whether these risks are "real".

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - September 11, 2025: Show and Tell

In today’s Markets Happy Hour podcast we do some show and tell as we have a guest, Pablo Castro, who is an economic commentator and podcast host from Argentina, and we examine the recent election performance down there and compare the experience they have had to that of developed markets.We start by analyzing the recent inflation numbers from the US and look at the converging soft indicators, whereby consumers are starting to expect a lower rate of inflation going forward. This may now give permission to the Fed to reduce rates at its upcoming meeting next week and we cite the ECB’s recent decision to hold as well as the recent job market revisions, which are likely to be a deciding factor.While equity markets and Gold reach new highs, geopolitics seems to have taken a turn for the unexpected, while domestic politics continues to crowd the airwaves and further flood the zone.We stay on geopolitics to conclude by reflecting on the recent setback for the Argentinian president and ask what this means for his reforms as well as the region’s growth

Markets Happy Hour Podcast September 5, 2025 - Labor Day Reflections

In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast Labor is on our mind - as this was recorded just before the disappointing labor statistics were released in the US, showing essentially a summer slowdown and the addition of only 22,000 jobs. All eyes were on these figures as they are likely to serve as a permission slip for an interest rate cut later in the month, and perhaps give a more visceral read on an economy that continues to fire a set of mixed signals. Inflation remains top of mind, if not top of the range, and reminders such as the negative surprise from the UK (3.8%) abound that complacency would be ill-advised at this juncture. A few weeks ago, in the Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Dr. David Kelly of J P Morgan we described the job market as a "low hiring/low firing equilibrium" and that seems to be the case. The bond market has been "busy" also sending a series of mixed signals - from the tightness of high yield bond spreads, suggesting not only a confidence in the credit worthiness of most issuers, but also throwing open the question as to where the more shaky issuers have gone? To the private credit market maybe? The other dynamic in bond markets is the low level of demand at the long end of the government bond curve - a global phenomenon indicating lack of trust and confidence in the fiscal positioning of at least four "problem children" - the US, the UK, France and Japan, but in reality few countries have been spared. Staying on the bond market, while default rates seem to be a non-issue we do note that they are higher than average, and have remained so for longer than average. This slow burn higher than average default rate - still nowhere close to the 2008 levels - is affecting most sectors with the exception of energy and power, which again hints at the strain in segments of the economy not lucky enough to be levered to the fortunes of AI. Equity markets are facing a traditionally challenging month - September - which is typically turbulent both for long term government debt as well as equities. Another sign of this is the boost to gold, which Goldman Sachs expects could jump to $5,000 an oz if Fed independence erodes, and silver as well as gold have seen their values double in three years. On the theme of currency debasement, the Trump administration's favorable positioning has given a boost to stablecoins and now one issuer (Tether) has suggested it might look to gold, as well as the USD to be its backstop. We finish with a dose of pondering. Is trust now at a premium, such that lack of trust - whether in the independence of institutions such as central banks, the integrity of public officials (c.f. Angela Rayner and Lisa Cook), the behavior of a CEO (cf. Nestle) or in the financial soundness of a fiscal poilicy - could derail things by sparking uncertainty? It does seem like trust has been a casualty of recent political turmoil, and this may well be driving investors into shorter term positioning (at least with respect to bonds) and "safer" sectors (such as large cap tech) when it comes to equities. © 2025 Advisory services offered by Moneta Group Investment Advisors, LLC, (“MGIA”) an investment adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). MGIA is a wholly owned subsidiary of Moneta Group, LLC. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply a certain level of skill or training. The information contained herein is for informational purposes only, is not intended to be comprehensive or exclusive, and is based on materials deemed reliable, but the accuracy of which has not been verified.Trademarks and copyrights of materials referenced herein are the property of their respective owners. Index returns reflect total return, assuming reinvestment of dividends and interest. The returns do not reflect the effect of taxes and/or fees that an investor would incur. Examples contained herein are for illustrative purposes only based on generic assumptions. Given the dynamic nature of the subject matter and the environment in which this communication was written, the information contained herein is subject to change. This is not an offer to sell or buy securities, nor does it represent any specific recommendation. You should consult with an appropriately credentialed professional before making any financial, investment, tax or legal decision. An index is an unmanaged portfolio of specified securities and does not reflect any initial or ongoing expenses nor can it be invested in directly. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. All investments are subject to a risk of loss. Diversification and strategic asset allocation do not assure profit or protect against loss in declining markets. These materials do not take into consideration your personal circumstances, financial or otherwise.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - August 28, 2025 - with Special Guest Torsten Slok

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast - entitled Fireworks and Firings - we kick off the holiday weekend in the US with an engaging discussion with Torsten Slok, Chief Economist of Apollo Group.We start with a "vibe check" on the US economy - citing the consensus expectations for growth (falling but positive at around 1%) and inflation (stable and tending towards rising north of the magic 2% target - with consensus in the 3% range). This combination would generally point more towards a stagflationary outcome than a buoyant one, and it does beg the question as to how much wiggle room that the Fed has when it comes to interest rates.We move then to fixed income markets and global phenomenon of rising long yields, and ask what is the common factor at play. While persistent inflation may be one reason, there may also be nagging doubts around the fiscal conditions at work. Equity markets too are seeing a bifurcation - around tech and everything else, and the concentration only heightens the need for investors to remain diversified. We end with a discussion of the demand for US assets and how that has recently rebounded, suggesting that non-US investors continue to crave US exposure and explaining a firming of the value of the dollar, which had previously had a weakening trajectory. We look to the portfolio implications of these cross currents - the importance of diversification, continuing to build in recession resilience into every portfolio and to not underestimate the power of private assets to provide diversification and ballast, as a complement (or even an alternative) to global diversification.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - August 21, 2025 - Hole in One?

In this week's short Markets Happy Hour Podcast, I round out a trip to South America by taking stock of the lessons from the "labs" on the ground here and what we can learn for Developed market economies wrestling with "more of the same". We start by citing the 3.8% inflation surprise in the UK, and the cold water that that poured on interest rate cut expectations, which, when coupled with a sell off in the 30 UK Gilts (they reached the highest level they have seen since 1998) suggests a squeeze from both sides - from within as the consumers struggle with elevated interest rates and high inflation, and from the outside as investors voice their disinterest in UK long dated debt.We turn then to the Jackson hole dilemmas, the multi-layered nature of the questions facing them - whether to retain a "flexible" approach to inflation, whether tariffs will have an effect, what to do when fiscal woes run the show (and low interest rates are desired to keep debt affordable). We touch on the AI wobbles that have sprung up this week, as well as the bond market messaging that all is well, particularly in high yield. It is a sea of contradictory indicators and it remains difficult to see a path to certainty. Finally, the weaker US dollar has led to a rise in popularity of the EM carry trade, which is yet another example of the surprising upside that EM can glean from some of the scuffles in Developed Markets.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast August 14, 2025 - with Special Guest Dr. David Kelly

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast - subtitled - Notes from a Laboratory - I am recording from Buenos Aires, which has been described to me as like a "laboratory" for economic policy. However, we are talking much more about the global economic outlook here. As usual we start with inflation, where David shares caution regarding the recent inflation numbers in the US where persistent services inflation may have been masked by falling oil prices. We ask if this is a long term trend, and he suggests that it is not, and that the upward pressure on inflation should limit the US Fed's actions around lowering rates. The other risk to inflation remains of tax rebates in next year's tax season, which could act like a further massive stimulus to spending. We discuss then the modern-day tortoise and hare scenario - whereby the low growth economy is akin to an aged tortoise plodding along - with still positive but not exuberant growth. The markets, on the other hand, tear ahead and resemble the energetic "hare". We ask whether these two should in fact appear like opposites in this way, and who in fact "wins the race" at the end of the day.Dwelling a little more on market dispersion, we discuss the growing concentration of markets, and whether the same rules of portfolio diversification still apply. David suggests that they do when it comes to global diversification, but we question whether the outlook for small and mid-cap stocks can be expected to be the same given the dynamics of large caps dominating, tariff exposure and pricing power. Finally we touch on the valuation of the US dollar, and ask it remains too high.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - August 8, 2025, Resilience and retreat

In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we reflect on 6 days spent in Chile, and the insights from a conversation with Jose Manuel Silva of LarrainVial Asset Management, who shared details of how Chile is responding to the current tariff environment. It has been a week of much news flow - from the labor statistics surprise at the end of last week, which led to a flurry activity including the firing of the Head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which spooked markets briefly - raising the question as to what data can be trusted from any government agency. The only way for interest rates seems to be down, now, particularly with a new Fed governor who is a President Trump nominee, and the employment numbers which seems to present incontrovertible evidence that the market is perhaps not as strong as had been previously thought. The Bank of England itself dropped rates to 4% - but only after two votes, as they appeared to be conflicted due to ongoing stubborn inflation. Equity markets were resilient, reaching new highs in the US, although concentration continued to mount, and we present some charts showing the increased beta in these names. As a handful of stocks become the market, it is only to be expected that their beta will increase, but this then makes it increasingly more difficult for active managers to outperform - as it is difficult to charge fees for holding a few top names, and particularly to gain an edge with respect to them.We do ask what this stunning rise in markets since liberation day (27% for the S&P and 38% for NASDAQ) means for even riskier sectors such as Meme stocks, AI levered names and unprofitable tech, and these sectors have done even better - indicating an appetite for risk that is clearly accelerating. This may explain the pent up demand for equities even when a period of weakness is evident. Moving then to emerging markets we reflect on the growing gulf between US holders of non-US assets and non-US holders of US assets - clearly the latter group is larger as US markets outperform, and we ask whether this is likely to ever reverse? At current levels of power asymmetry it seems unlikely - particularly as trade deal chips continue to fall in the US's favor. We then reflect on some green shoots around EM and ask what it means for Chile in particular.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast July 31, 2025 - A Twist in the Tale

In today's Markets Happy Hour podcast we are recording in the middle of a flurry of trade news flow on the eve of the August 1 tariff deadline. We know, as we record, that the deadline has been extended by 90 days with respect to Mexico and much uncertainty is still in place. However the "twist" in the tale or the "plot twist" of the title refers to the subtle but perceptible change in how the US is being regarded in these trade negotiations as it increasingly flexes its muscle and grows more confident, seemingly leaving its counterparties with little morale. We discuss in particular the "lose, lose, lose, lose" case of Europe.Moving to other matters we discuss the strong Q2 GDP growth figure in the US, and how this lowers the odds of an imminent rate cut, and dissect an earnings season that has been very bi-polar. With old economy stocks on the one hand struggling to maintain margins and cope with even early tariff pressure, tech companies are continuously beating expectations and enjoying an uplift in their share price accordingly. We await the US jobs figure tomorrow to receive more granular detail on the state of the US economy and while AI hype continues to rage, we may well see some of the collateral damage that that causes. The Markets Happy Hour Podcast is a weekly check-in on market conditions and what it means for investment portfolios. Aoifinn Devitt is an advisor to family offices and institutions around investing for a richer future. She believes that understanding the market context in which we operate is a key part of navigating that future with confidence and agency.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - July 24, 2025 - Tariffs, Transmission and Tall Tales - w/Jon Chesshire

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we tackle the mid-summer silly season in which an extraordinary number of "tall tales" and distractions seem to be flooding the zone. Our special guest this week is Jon Chesshire, Managing Principal of Sindia Capital, who is returning for his second appearance on the podcast. One persistent theme is tariffs though, and in analyzing their impact on the economy we are increasingly focused on the new economy/old economy impact, which is diverging sharply. As old economy stocks are wrestling with low margins, low pricing power and heavy exposure to tariff-impacted imports, new economy stocks such as tech stocks and semi-conductor manufacturers enjoy higher margins and seem to be relatively unaffected. This latter group drives the stock market at present, which could be why the stock market is being so stubbornly resilient.We touch on inflation in Europe (falling) as well as interest rates - now on hold everywhere, and re-examine why EM are starting to close the gap with DM. Finally we have some fun with meme stocks of the current era, and ask why they might be surging again. Hint: It has to do with the retail investor.The Markets Happy Hour Podcast is a weekly check-in on market conditions and what it means for investment portfolios. Aoifinn Devitt is an advisor to family offices and institutions around investing for a richer future. She believes that understanding the market context in which we operate is a key part of navigating that future with confidence and agency.

Markets Happy Hour Podcast - With Special Guest Euan Munro - July 17, 2025; The Waiting Game

In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we are delighted to be joined by Euan Munro, former CEO of Newton Asset Management and a well-known commentator on market conditions and multi-asset investing. We start by reflecting on the slightly higher than expected inflation numbers in the US, ask "Will he stay or will he go?" with respect to the Fed Chairman, and analyze how markets have been mulling over this essential question - as expressed by the 30 year bond yield, the S&P and the US dollar.The trade narrative is continuing to evolve as even the 10% tariff has yielded meaningful receipts so far and little impact has been seen on inflation. However Euan argues that it remains far too early to say how tariffs will ultimately affect inflation. Looking around the world we look at diverging interest rate shapes and sizes (Table Mountain v. the Matterhorn), equity market performance and a strange convergence that continues between the worlds of EM and DM debt. We conclude by comparing the behavior of gold and Bitcoin and asking whether anything is in fact doing the job we expect of it, and whether we are under-appreciating income in particular - neither of which Gold or Bitcoin generate. The Markets Happy Hour Podcast is a weekly check-in on market conditions and what it means for investment portfolios. Aoifinn Devitt is an advisor to family offices and institutions around investing for a richer future. She believes that understanding the market context in which we operate is a key part of navigating that future with confidence and agency.