Markets Happy Hour Podcast June 13, 2025 - A Mid-Summer Reprieve - But Not for the US dollar

In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we look at the state of affairs in markets as we approach mid-summer and marvel at the fact that all assets seem relatively subdued in terms of activity - with the exception of the US dollar.

US inflation has been modest (2.4%), which is leading to a siren call for more rate cuts, although the US Fed has still resisted pressure - despite the fact that other central banks around the world are clearly on a downward trajectory with their monetary policy.

Equity markets are now above where they were at the date of President Trump's inauguration, although non-US markets have outperformed, and this reflects the slow erosion of US exceptionalism. This is most acutely felt - however, in the case of the US dollar, which is now at a three year low, and essentially has turned some fund managers into currency managers.

Meanwhile geopolitics continues to be vexed and thorny, which is having some impact on the oil price.

The Markets Happy Hour Podcast is a weekly check-in on market conditions and what it means for investment portfolios. Aoifinn Devitt is an advisor to family offices and institutions around investing for a richer future. She believes that understanding the market context in which we operate is a key part of navigating that future with confidence and agency.