Markets Happy Hour Podcast - February 14, 2025 . . I’m not Loving It . .or the New Abnormal

This week's podcast comes to you one day late - on Valentine's Day - due to travel, but is this love we feel in the Air? Hardly . . there is rather a sense of inundation with government policies, geopolitical surprises and unconventional developments that has led the sense of a new "abnormal".

An unwelcome US inflation print - 3% annualized - in January initially sent markets into a negative tailspin with stocks falling and the US ten year yield spiking. . but then, it was revealed that the devil was in the detail. While energy prices contributed a little to the increase, there was also the Personal Consumption Expenditure which was a bit more subdued with a 2 handle - 2.6-2.7%. This boosted market confidence, and we were back to the familiar ebullience that has characterized most of the start to the year.

This is even more staggering if we think of the volley of news around DOGE cuts into the federal workforce and spending, bold corporate actions (c.f. Elon Musk's $98 bn bid for Open AI - which may now be pulled it if returns to non-profit status). Tariff news has been volatile too - with both big bangs (25% tariffs on steel and aluminum) and incremental (reciprocal) tariffs under discussion, and maybe did the boy cry wolf? Markets don't seem to be as moved today by tariff rhetoric.